Machine learning-based ABA treatment recommendation and personalization for autism spectrum disorder: an exploratory study

Autism spectrum is a brain development condition that impairs an individual’s capacity to communicate socially and manifests through strict routines and obsessive–compulsive behavior. Applied behavior analysis (ABA) is the gold-standard treatment for autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, as the number of ASD cases increases, there is a substantial shortage of licensed ABA practitioners, limiting the timely formulation, revision, and implementation of treatment plans and goals. Additionally, the subjectivity of the clinician and a lack of data-driven decision-making affect treatment quality. We address these obstacles by applying two machine learning algorithms to recommend and personalize ABA treatment goals for 29 study participants with ASD. The patient similarity and collaborative filtering methods predicted ABA treatment with an average accuracy of 81–84%, with a normalized discounted cumulative gain of 79–81% (NDCG) compared to clinician-prepared ABA treatment recommendations. Additionally, we assess the two models’ treatment efficacy (TE) by measuring the percentage of recommended treatment goals mastered by the study participants. The proposed treatment recommendation and personalization strategy are generalizable to other intervention methods in addition to ABA and for other brain disorders. This study was registered as a clinical trial on November 5, 2020 with trial registration number CTRI/2020/11/028933.