A comparison of echocardiographic and circulating cardiac biomarkers for predicting incident cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND: Echocardiographic measures are known predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. This study compared the predictive value of such measures to that of circulating cardiac biomarkers for a composite cardiovascular disease outcome in an aging population. METHODS: In this prospective population-based cohort study, echocardiography was performed at baseline together with assessments of traditional CVD risk factors and circulating cardiac biomarkers, NT-proBNP and troponin I, in 1016 individuals all aged 70 years. Assessments were repeated at ages 75 and 80. A composite CVD outcome (myocardial infarction, heart failure or ischemic stroke) was charted over 15 years. All echocardiography variables, except for the E/A ratio, were analyzed on a continuous scale. RESULTS: Over 10 years, left atrial (LA) diameter, left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and high E/A ratio (>1.5) increased, while left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remained unchanged. Using Cox proportional hazard analyses with time-updated variables for echocardiographic measures and traditional risk factors, an enlarged LA diameter and a low LVEF were independently related to incident CVD in 222 participants. The addition of LA diameter and LVEF to traditional risk factors increased the C-statistic by 1.5% (p = 0.008). However, the addition of troponin I and NT-proBNP to traditional risk factors increased the C-statistic by 3.0% (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: An enlarged LA diameter and a low LVEF improved the prediction of incident CVD compared to traditional risk factors. However, given that troponin I and NT-proBNP improved prediction to a similar extent, the use of simple blood tests to improve clinical cardiovascular disease risk prediction is only further supported by this study.