Testing the expectancy-disconfirmation theory: Geography, employment status and household size of local communities determine their perspectives of a local mine business in South Africa

Local communities’ perspectives on mining businesses are a matter of endless debate, particularly in developing countries. If misunderstood or mismanaged by authorities (local and national), these perspectives may lead to violent and deadly reactions, which are unaffordable given the tremendous contribution of mining businesses to socio-economic development. The recurrence of these violent events means that authorities and mining businesses may have been failing to understand the dynamic of local people’s expectations. Here, to explain the complexity of the interactions of local people with mine businesses, we collected socio-economic data along with data on people’s satisfaction levels towards the services delivered by a local mining business in the Mose Kotane Local Municipality in South Africa. Data collected were analyzed by fitting a Structural Equation Model (SEM). We found that only 4–8% of communities’ expectations were met by the local mine business, and that closest communities to the mine do not benefit significantly more services than away-communities (Chi-square = 2.71, df = 4, P = 0.60). However, the proportion of moderately satisfied people (in relation to the services delivered by the mine) tends to increase when moving away from the mine while the proportion of dissatisfied people decreases. Our SEM, linking socio-economic data to communities’ perspectives, shows a good fit (Fisher C value = 0; P = 1.00, n = 158). In communities away from the mine, residents who were initially happy about the establishment of the mining business tend to be satisfied with the services delivered by the mine (β = 2.69±0.41, P<0.001) but these residents are likely to be employed people (P<0.05). In communities close to the mine, large-sized households tend to be satisfied with the mine-delivered services (P = 0.04). This is potentially due to the fact that a large household is more likely to have at least one person working for the mine. Collectively, these findings reveal how socio-economic variables determine people’s perspectives on the mining business.