Association of severe COVID-19 outcomes with radiological scoring and cardiomegaly: findings from the COVID-19 inpatients database, Japan

PURPOSE: We aimed to characterize novel coronavirus infections based on imaging [chest X-ray and chest computed tomography (CT)] at the time of admission. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data from 396 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who were managed at 68 hospitals in Japan from January 25 to September 2, 2020. Case patients were categorized as severe (death or treatment with invasive ventilation during hospitalization) and non-severe groups. The imaging findings of the groups were compared by calculating odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), adjusted for sex, age, and hospital size (and radiographic patient positioning for cardiomegaly). Chest X-ray and CT scores ranged from 0 to 72 and 0 to 20, respectively. Optimal cut-off values for these scores were determined by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The median age of the 396 patients was 48 years (interquartile range 28–65) and 211 (53.3%) patients were male. Thirty-two severe cases were compared to 364 non-severe cases. At the time of admission, abnormal lesions on chest X-ray and CT were mainly observed in the lower zone/lobe. Among severe cases, abnormal lesions were also seen in the upper zone/lobe. After adjustment, the total chest X-ray and CT score values showed a dose-dependent association with severe disease. For chest X-ray scores, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.91 (95% CI = 0.86–0.97) and an optimal cut-off value of 9 points predicted severe disease with 83.3% sensitivity and 84.7% specificity. For chest CT scores, the AUC was 0.94 (95% CI = 0.89–0.98) and an optimal cut-off value of 11 points predicted severe disease with 90.9% sensitivity and 82.2% specificity. Cardiomegaly was strongly associated with severe disease [adjusted OR = 24.6 (95% CI = 3.7–166.0)]. CONCLUSION: Chest CT and X-ray scores and the identification of cardiomegaly could be useful for classifying severe COVID-19 on admission. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11604-022-01300-2.