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Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022

Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in...

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Autores principales: Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong, Teekasap, Pard, Nittayasoot, Natthaprang, Phaiyarom, Mathudara, Cetthakrikul, Nisachol
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9320113/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35891188
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10071024
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author Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong
Teekasap, Pard
Nittayasoot, Natthaprang
Phaiyarom, Mathudara
Cetthakrikul, Nisachol
author_facet Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong
Teekasap, Pard
Nittayasoot, Natthaprang
Phaiyarom, Mathudara
Cetthakrikul, Nisachol
author_sort Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong
collection PubMed
description Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Omicron variant in Thailand. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model combined with a system dynamics model. We developed four scenarios with differing values of the reproduction number (R) and vaccination rates. In the most pessimistic scenario (R = 7.5 and base vaccination rate), the number of incident cases reached a peak of 49,523 (95% CI: 20,599 to 99,362) by day 73, and the peak daily deaths grew to 270 by day 50. The predicted cumulative cases and deaths at the end of the wave were approximately 3.7 million and 22,000, respectively. In the most optimistic assumption (R = 4.5 and speedy vaccination rate), the peak incident cases was about one third the cases in the pessimistic assumption (15,650, 95% CI: 12,688 to 17,603). In the coming months, Thailand may face a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic due to the Omicron variant. The case toll due to the Omicron wave is likely to outnumber the earlier Delta wave, but the death toll is proportionately lower. Vaccination campaigns for the booster dose should be expedited to prevent severe illnesses and deaths in the population.
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spelling pubmed-93201132022-07-27 Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022 Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong Teekasap, Pard Nittayasoot, Natthaprang Phaiyarom, Mathudara Cetthakrikul, Nisachol Vaccines (Basel) Article Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Omicron variant in Thailand. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model combined with a system dynamics model. We developed four scenarios with differing values of the reproduction number (R) and vaccination rates. In the most pessimistic scenario (R = 7.5 and base vaccination rate), the number of incident cases reached a peak of 49,523 (95% CI: 20,599 to 99,362) by day 73, and the peak daily deaths grew to 270 by day 50. The predicted cumulative cases and deaths at the end of the wave were approximately 3.7 million and 22,000, respectively. In the most optimistic assumption (R = 4.5 and speedy vaccination rate), the peak incident cases was about one third the cases in the pessimistic assumption (15,650, 95% CI: 12,688 to 17,603). In the coming months, Thailand may face a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic due to the Omicron variant. The case toll due to the Omicron wave is likely to outnumber the earlier Delta wave, but the death toll is proportionately lower. Vaccination campaigns for the booster dose should be expedited to prevent severe illnesses and deaths in the population. MDPI 2022-06-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9320113/ /pubmed/35891188 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10071024 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong
Teekasap, Pard
Nittayasoot, Natthaprang
Phaiyarom, Mathudara
Cetthakrikul, Nisachol
Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022
title Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022
title_full Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022
title_fullStr Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022
title_full_unstemmed Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022
title_short Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022
title_sort forecasted trends of the new covid-19 epidemic due to the omicron variant in thailand, 2022
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9320113/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35891188
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10071024
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