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Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk

Predicting species‐level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterise...

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Autores principales: De Kauwe, Martin G., Sabot, Manon E. B., Medlyn, Belinda E., Pitman, Andrew J., Meir, Patrick, Cernusak, Lucas A., Gallagher, Rachael V., Ukkola, Anna M., Rifai, Sami W., Choat, Brendan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9321630/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35363880
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nph.18129
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author De Kauwe, Martin G.
Sabot, Manon E. B.
Medlyn, Belinda E.
Pitman, Andrew J.
Meir, Patrick
Cernusak, Lucas A.
Gallagher, Rachael V.
Ukkola, Anna M.
Rifai, Sami W.
Choat, Brendan
author_facet De Kauwe, Martin G.
Sabot, Manon E. B.
Medlyn, Belinda E.
Pitman, Andrew J.
Meir, Patrick
Cernusak, Lucas A.
Gallagher, Rachael V.
Ukkola, Anna M.
Rifai, Sami W.
Choat, Brendan
author_sort De Kauwe, Martin G.
collection PubMed
description Predicting species‐level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South‐Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344–1424 mm yr(−1)). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017–2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)). The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within‐species’ ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO(2) in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision‐making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net‐zero emission strategies.
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spelling pubmed-93216302022-07-30 Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk De Kauwe, Martin G. Sabot, Manon E. B. Medlyn, Belinda E. Pitman, Andrew J. Meir, Patrick Cernusak, Lucas A. Gallagher, Rachael V. Ukkola, Anna M. Rifai, Sami W. Choat, Brendan New Phytol Research Predicting species‐level responses to drought at the landscape scale is critical to reducing uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon and water cycle projections. We embedded a stomatal optimisation model in the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) land surface model and parameterised the model for 15 canopy dominant eucalypt tree species across South‐Eastern Australia (mean annual precipitation range: 344–1424 mm yr(−1)). We conducted three experiments: applying CABLE to the 2017–2019 drought; a 20% drier drought; and a 20% drier drought with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)). The severity of the drought was highlighted as for at least 25% of their distribution ranges, 60% of species experienced leaf water potentials beyond the water potential at which 50% of hydraulic conductivity is lost due to embolism. We identified areas of severe hydraulic stress within‐species’ ranges, but we also pinpointed resilience in species found in predominantly semiarid areas. The importance of the role of CO(2) in ameliorating drought stress was consistent across species. Our results represent an important advance in our capacity to forecast the resilience of individual tree species, providing an evidence base for decision‐making around the resilience of restoration plantings or net‐zero emission strategies. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-04-22 2022-07 /pmc/articles/PMC9321630/ /pubmed/35363880 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nph.18129 Text en © 2022 The Authors New Phytologist © 2022 New Phytologist Foundation https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research
De Kauwe, Martin G.
Sabot, Manon E. B.
Medlyn, Belinda E.
Pitman, Andrew J.
Meir, Patrick
Cernusak, Lucas A.
Gallagher, Rachael V.
Ukkola, Anna M.
Rifai, Sami W.
Choat, Brendan
Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk
title Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk
title_full Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk
title_fullStr Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk
title_full_unstemmed Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk
title_short Towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk
title_sort towards species‐level forecasts of drought‐induced tree mortality risk
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9321630/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35363880
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nph.18129
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