Shrinkage versus fragmentation response in neoadjuvantly treated oesophageal adenocarcinoma: significant prognostic relevance

AIMS: No consensus exists on the clinical value of tumour regression grading (TRG) systems for therapy effects of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Existing TRG systems lack standardization and reproducibility, and do not consider the morphological heterogeneity of tumour response. Therefore, we aim to identify morphological tumour regression patterns of oesophageal adenocarcinoma after nCRT and their association with survival. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma, who underwent nCRT followed by surgery and achieved a partial response to nCRT, were identified from two Dutch upper‐gastrointestinal (GI) centres (2005–18; test cohort). Resection specimens were scored for regression patterns by two independent observers according to a pre‐defined three‐step flowchart. The results were validated in an external cohort (2001–17). In total, 110 patients were included in the test cohort and 115 in the validation cohort. In the test cohort, two major regression patterns were identified: fragmentation (60%) and shrinkage (40%), with an excellent interobserver agreement (κ = 0.87). Here, patients with a fragmented pattern had a significantly higher pathological stage (stages III/IV: 52 versus 16%; P < 0.001), less downstaging (48 versus 91%; P < 0.001), a higher risk of recurrence [risk ratio (RR) = 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.5–5.6] and poorer 5‐year overall survival (30 versus 80% respectively, P = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The validation cohort confirmed these findings, although had more advanced cases (case‐stages = III/IV 91 versus 73%, P = 0.005) and a higher prevalence of fragmented‐pattern cases (80 versus 60%, P = 0.002). When combining the cohorts in multivariate analysis, the pattern of response was an independent prognostic factor [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.0–3.0]. In conclusion, we established an externally validated, reproducible and clinically relevant classification of tumour response.