Types of diet, obesity, and incident type 2 diabetes: Findings from the UK Biobank prospective cohort study

AIM: To investigate the associations between types of diet and incident type 2 diabetes and whether adiposity mediated these associations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In total, 203 790 participants from UK Biobank (mean age 55.2 years; 55.8% women) without diabetes at baseline were included in this prospective study. Using the dietary intake data self‐reported at baseline, participants were categorized as vegetarians (n = 3237), fish eaters (n = 4405), fish and poultry eaters (n = 2217), meat eaters (n = 178 004) and varied diet (n = 15 927). The association between type of diet and incident type 2 diabetes was investigated using Cox‐proportional hazards models with a 2‐year landmark analysis. The mediation role of adiposity was tested under a counterfactual framework. RESULTS: After excluding the first 2 years of follow‐up, the median follow‐up was 5.4 (IQR: 4.8‐6.3) years, during which 5067 (2.5%) participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. After adjusting for lifestyle factors, fish eaters (HR 0.52 [95% CI: 0.39‐0.69]) and fish and poultry eaters (HR 0.62 [95% CI: 0.45‐0.88]) had a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes compared with meat eaters. The association for vegetarians was not significant. Varied diet had a higher risk of type 2 diabetes. Obesity partially mediated the association of fish (30.6%), fish and poultry (49.8%) and varied (55.2%) diets. CONCLUSIONS: Fish eaters, as well as fish and poultry eaters, were at a lower risk of incident type 2 diabetes than meat eaters, partially attributable to lower obesity risk.