Observed versus predicted mortality after isolated tricuspid valve surgery

BACKGROUND: Aim of this study is to analyse the performances of Clinical Risk Score (CRS) and European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)‐II in isolated tricuspid surgery. METHODS: Three hundred and eighty‐three patients (54 ± 16 year; 54% female) were enrolled. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the true positive fraction of test results and the false‐positive fraction for a procedure. RESULTS: Considering the 30‐day mortality the area under the curve was 0.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.50–0.72) for EuroSCORE II and 0.7 (95% CI 0.56–0.84) for CRS‐score. The ratio of expected/observed mortality showed underestimation when considering EuroSCORE‐II (min. 0.46–max. 0.6). At multivariate analysis, the CRS score (p = .005) was predictor of late cardiac death. CONCLUSION: We suggest using both scores to obtain a range of expected mortality. CRS to speculate on late survival.