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Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020–March 2022

Despite the stunning speed with which highly effective and safe vaccines have been developed, the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 causes high rates of (re)infection, a major impact on health care services, and a slowdown to the socio-economic system. For COVID-19, accurate and timely forecas...

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Autores principales: Branda, Francesco, Abenavoli, Ludovico, Pierini, Massimo, Mazzoli, Sandra
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9326619/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35892732
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diseases10030038
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author Branda, Francesco
Abenavoli, Ludovico
Pierini, Massimo
Mazzoli, Sandra
author_facet Branda, Francesco
Abenavoli, Ludovico
Pierini, Massimo
Mazzoli, Sandra
author_sort Branda, Francesco
collection PubMed
description Despite the stunning speed with which highly effective and safe vaccines have been developed, the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 causes high rates of (re)infection, a major impact on health care services, and a slowdown to the socio-economic system. For COVID-19, accurate and timely forecasts are therefore essential to provide the opportunity to rapidly identify risk areas affected by the pandemic, reallocate the use of health resources, design countermeasures, and increase public awareness. This paper presents the design and implementation of an approach based on autoregressive models to reliably forecast the spread of COVID-19 in Italian regions. Starting from the database of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC), the experimental evaluation was performed on real-world data collected from February 2020 to March 2022, focusing on Calabria, a region of Southern Italy. This evaluation shows that the proposed approach achieves a good predictive power for out-of-sample predictions within one week (R-squared > 0.9 at 1 day, R-squared > 0.7 at 7 days), although it decreases with increasing forecasted days (R-squared > 0.5 at 14 days).
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spelling pubmed-93266192022-07-28 Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020–March 2022 Branda, Francesco Abenavoli, Ludovico Pierini, Massimo Mazzoli, Sandra Diseases Article Despite the stunning speed with which highly effective and safe vaccines have been developed, the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 causes high rates of (re)infection, a major impact on health care services, and a slowdown to the socio-economic system. For COVID-19, accurate and timely forecasts are therefore essential to provide the opportunity to rapidly identify risk areas affected by the pandemic, reallocate the use of health resources, design countermeasures, and increase public awareness. This paper presents the design and implementation of an approach based on autoregressive models to reliably forecast the spread of COVID-19 in Italian regions. Starting from the database of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC), the experimental evaluation was performed on real-world data collected from February 2020 to March 2022, focusing on Calabria, a region of Southern Italy. This evaluation shows that the proposed approach achieves a good predictive power for out-of-sample predictions within one week (R-squared > 0.9 at 1 day, R-squared > 0.7 at 7 days), although it decreases with increasing forecasted days (R-squared > 0.5 at 14 days). MDPI 2022-06-30 /pmc/articles/PMC9326619/ /pubmed/35892732 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diseases10030038 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Branda, Francesco
Abenavoli, Ludovico
Pierini, Massimo
Mazzoli, Sandra
Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020–March 2022
title Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020–March 2022
title_full Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020–March 2022
title_fullStr Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020–March 2022
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020–March 2022
title_short Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020–March 2022
title_sort predicting the spread of sars-cov-2 in italian regions: the calabria case study, february 2020–march 2022
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9326619/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35892732
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/diseases10030038
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