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A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols

Infectious diseases drive countries to provide vaccines to individuals. Due to the limited supply of vaccines, individuals prioritize receiving vaccinations worldwide. Although, priority groups are formed based on age groupings due to the restricted decision-making time. Governments usually ordain d...

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Autores principales: Shamsi Gamchi, N., Esmaeili, M.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9330986/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35900675
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10198-022-01491-5
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author Shamsi Gamchi, N.
Esmaeili, M.
author_facet Shamsi Gamchi, N.
Esmaeili, M.
author_sort Shamsi Gamchi, N.
collection PubMed
description Infectious diseases drive countries to provide vaccines to individuals. Due to the limited supply of vaccines, individuals prioritize receiving vaccinations worldwide. Although, priority groups are formed based on age groupings due to the restricted decision-making time. Governments usually ordain different health protocols such as lockdown policy, mandatory use of face masks, and vaccination during the pandemics. Therefore, this study considers the case of COVID-19 with a SEQIR (susceptible–exposed–quarantined–infected–recovered) epidemic model and presents a novel prioritization technique to minimize the social and economic impacts of the lockdown policy. We use retail units as one of the affected parts to demonstrate how a vaccination plan may be more effective if individuals such as retailers were prioritized and age groups. In addition, we estimate the total required vaccine doses to control the epidemic disease and compute the number of vaccine doses supplied by various suppliers. The vaccine doses are determined using optimal control theory in the solution technique. In addition, we consider the effect of the mask using policy in the number of vaccine doses allocated to each priority group. The model’s performance is evaluated using an illustrative scenario based on a real case. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10198-022-01491-5.
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spelling pubmed-93309862022-07-28 A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols Shamsi Gamchi, N. Esmaeili, M. Eur J Health Econ Original Paper Infectious diseases drive countries to provide vaccines to individuals. Due to the limited supply of vaccines, individuals prioritize receiving vaccinations worldwide. Although, priority groups are formed based on age groupings due to the restricted decision-making time. Governments usually ordain different health protocols such as lockdown policy, mandatory use of face masks, and vaccination during the pandemics. Therefore, this study considers the case of COVID-19 with a SEQIR (susceptible–exposed–quarantined–infected–recovered) epidemic model and presents a novel prioritization technique to minimize the social and economic impacts of the lockdown policy. We use retail units as one of the affected parts to demonstrate how a vaccination plan may be more effective if individuals such as retailers were prioritized and age groups. In addition, we estimate the total required vaccine doses to control the epidemic disease and compute the number of vaccine doses supplied by various suppliers. The vaccine doses are determined using optimal control theory in the solution technique. In addition, we consider the effect of the mask using policy in the number of vaccine doses allocated to each priority group. The model’s performance is evaluated using an illustrative scenario based on a real case. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10198-022-01491-5. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2022-07-28 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9330986/ /pubmed/35900675 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10198-022-01491-5 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2022 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Shamsi Gamchi, N.
Esmaeili, M.
A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols
title A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols
title_full A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols
title_fullStr A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols
title_full_unstemmed A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols
title_short A novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols
title_sort novel mathematical model for prioritization of individuals to receive vaccine considering governmental health protocols
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9330986/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35900675
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10198-022-01491-5
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