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An Optimal Control Model to Understand the Potential Impact of the New Vaccine and Transmission-Blocking Drugs for Malaria: A Case Study in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia

Malaria is one of the major causes of a high death rate due to infectious diseases every year. Despite attempts to eradicate the disease, results have not been very successful. New vaccines and other treatments are being constantly developed to seek optimal ways to prevent malaria outbreaks. In this...

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Autores principales: Handari, Bevina D., Ramadhani, Rossi A., Chukwu, Chidozie W., Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H. A., Aldila, Dipo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9331692/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35893823
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10081174
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author Handari, Bevina D.
Ramadhani, Rossi A.
Chukwu, Chidozie W.
Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H. A.
Aldila, Dipo
author_facet Handari, Bevina D.
Ramadhani, Rossi A.
Chukwu, Chidozie W.
Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H. A.
Aldila, Dipo
author_sort Handari, Bevina D.
collection PubMed
description Malaria is one of the major causes of a high death rate due to infectious diseases every year. Despite attempts to eradicate the disease, results have not been very successful. New vaccines and other treatments are being constantly developed to seek optimal ways to prevent malaria outbreaks. In this article, we formulate and analyze an optimal control model of malaria incorporating the new pre-erythrocytic vaccine and transmission-blocking treatment. Sufficient conditions to guarantee local stability of the malaria-free equilibrium were derived based on the controlled reproduction number condition. Using the non-linear least square fitting method, we fitted the incidence data from the province of Papua and West Papua in Indonesia to estimate the model parameter values. The optimal control characterization and optimality conditions were derived by applying the Pontryagin Maximum Principle, and numerical simulations were also presented. Simulation results show that both the pre-erythrocytic vaccine and transmission-blocking treatment significantly reduce the spread of malaria. Accordingly, a high doses of pre-erythrocytic vaccine is needed if the number of infected individuals is relatively small, while transmission blocking is required if the number of infected individuals is relatively large. These results suggest that a large-scale implementation of both strategies is vital as the world continues with the effort to eradicate malaria, especially in endemic regions across the globe.
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spelling pubmed-93316922022-07-29 An Optimal Control Model to Understand the Potential Impact of the New Vaccine and Transmission-Blocking Drugs for Malaria: A Case Study in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia Handari, Bevina D. Ramadhani, Rossi A. Chukwu, Chidozie W. Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H. A. Aldila, Dipo Vaccines (Basel) Article Malaria is one of the major causes of a high death rate due to infectious diseases every year. Despite attempts to eradicate the disease, results have not been very successful. New vaccines and other treatments are being constantly developed to seek optimal ways to prevent malaria outbreaks. In this article, we formulate and analyze an optimal control model of malaria incorporating the new pre-erythrocytic vaccine and transmission-blocking treatment. Sufficient conditions to guarantee local stability of the malaria-free equilibrium were derived based on the controlled reproduction number condition. Using the non-linear least square fitting method, we fitted the incidence data from the province of Papua and West Papua in Indonesia to estimate the model parameter values. The optimal control characterization and optimality conditions were derived by applying the Pontryagin Maximum Principle, and numerical simulations were also presented. Simulation results show that both the pre-erythrocytic vaccine and transmission-blocking treatment significantly reduce the spread of malaria. Accordingly, a high doses of pre-erythrocytic vaccine is needed if the number of infected individuals is relatively small, while transmission blocking is required if the number of infected individuals is relatively large. These results suggest that a large-scale implementation of both strategies is vital as the world continues with the effort to eradicate malaria, especially in endemic regions across the globe. MDPI 2022-07-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9331692/ /pubmed/35893823 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10081174 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Handari, Bevina D.
Ramadhani, Rossi A.
Chukwu, Chidozie W.
Khoshnaw, Sarbaz H. A.
Aldila, Dipo
An Optimal Control Model to Understand the Potential Impact of the New Vaccine and Transmission-Blocking Drugs for Malaria: A Case Study in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia
title An Optimal Control Model to Understand the Potential Impact of the New Vaccine and Transmission-Blocking Drugs for Malaria: A Case Study in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia
title_full An Optimal Control Model to Understand the Potential Impact of the New Vaccine and Transmission-Blocking Drugs for Malaria: A Case Study in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia
title_fullStr An Optimal Control Model to Understand the Potential Impact of the New Vaccine and Transmission-Blocking Drugs for Malaria: A Case Study in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia
title_full_unstemmed An Optimal Control Model to Understand the Potential Impact of the New Vaccine and Transmission-Blocking Drugs for Malaria: A Case Study in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia
title_short An Optimal Control Model to Understand the Potential Impact of the New Vaccine and Transmission-Blocking Drugs for Malaria: A Case Study in Papua and West Papua, Indonesia
title_sort optimal control model to understand the potential impact of the new vaccine and transmission-blocking drugs for malaria: a case study in papua and west papua, indonesia
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9331692/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35893823
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10081174
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