Prognostic and predictive value of radiomic signature in stage I lung adenocarcinomas following complete lobectomy

BACKGROUND: The overall survival (OS) of stage I operable lung cancer is relatively low, and not all patients can benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. This study aimed to develop and validate a radiomic signature (RS) for prediction of OS and adjuvant chemotherapy candidates in stage I lung adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 474 patients from 2 centers were divided into 1 training (n = 287), 1 internal validation (n = 122), and 1 external validation (n = 65) cohorts. We extracted 1218 radiomic features from preoperative CT images and constructed RS. We further investigated the prognostic value of the RS in survival analysis. Interaction between treatment and RS was assessed to evaluate its predictive value. Propensity score matching (PSM) was conducted. RESULTS: Overall, 474 eligible patients with stage I lung adenocarcinoma (214 men [45.1%]; median age, 60 years) were identified. The RS was significantly associated with OS in the training and two validation cohorts (hazard ratios [HRs] > = 3.22). In multivariable analysis, the RS remained an independent prognostic factor adjusting for clinicopathologic variables (adjusted HRs > = 2.63). The prognostic value of RS was also confirmed in PSM analysis. In stage I patients, the interaction between RS status and adjuvant chemotherapy was significant (interaction P = 0.020). Within the stratified analysis, good chemotherapy efficacy was only observed for patients with stage IB disease (interaction P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that the radiomic signature was associated with overall survival in patients with stage I lung adenocarcinoma and might predict adjuvant chemotherapy benefit, especially in stage IB patients. The potential of radiomic signature as a noninvasive predictor needed to be confirmed in future studies. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12967-022-03547-9.