Estimating the Decoupling between Net Carbon Emissions and Construction Land and Its Driving Factors: Evidence from Shandong Province, China

Human activities and land transformation are important factors in the growth of carbon emissions. In recent years, construction land for urban use in China has expanded rapidly. At the same time, carbon emissions in China are among the highest in the world. However, little is known about the relationship between the two factors. This study seeks to estimate the carbon emissions and carbon sequestrations of various types of land based on the land cover data of 137 county-level administrative regions in Shandong Province, China, from 2000 to 2020.The study estimated the carbon emissions for energy consumption using energy consumption data and night-time light images, hence, net carbon emissions. The Tapio decoupling coefficient was used to analyze the decoupling between the net carbon emissions and construction land, and where the model for the decoupling effort was constructed to explore the driving factors of decoupling. The results showed that net carbon emissions in Shandong Province continued to increase, and the areas with high carbon emissions were concentrated primarily in specific districts of the province. The relationship between net carbon emissions and construction land evolved from an expansive negative decoupling type to a strong negative decoupling type. Spatially, most areas in the province featured an expansive negative decoupling, but the areas with a strong negative decoupling have gradually increased. The intensive rate of land use and efficiencies in technological innovation have restrained carbon emissions, and they have contributed to an ideal decoupling situation. Although the intensity of carbon emission and the size of the population have restrained carbon emissions, efforts towards decoupling have faded. The degree of land use has facilitated carbon emissions, and in recent years, efforts have been made to achieve an ideal decoupling. The method of estimation of net carbon emissions devised in this research can lend itself to studies on other regions, and the conclusions provide a reference for China, going forward, to balance urbanization and carbon emissions.