The effect of trajectory of serum uric acid on survival and renal outcomes in patients with stage 3 chronic kidney disease

Uric acid (UA) is associated with renal disease and patient survival, but the causal associations remain unclear. Also, the longitudinal UA control (trajectory) is not well understood. We enrolled 808 subjects diagnosed with stage 3 chronic kidney disease from 2007 to 2017. We plotted the mean UA over a period of 6 months with a minimum requirement of 3 samples of UA. From the sampled points, we generated an interpolated line for each patient by joining mean values of UA levels over time. Using lines from all patients, we classified them into 3 groups of trajectories (low, medium, and high) through group-based trajectory modeling, and then we further separated them into either treatment or nontreatment subgroups. Due to multiple comparisons, we performed post hoc analysis by Bonferroni adjustment. Using univariate competing-risks regression, we calculated the competing risk analysis with subdistribution hazard ratio of possible confounders. All of the 6 trajectories appeared showed a gradual decline in function over time without any of the curves crossing over one another. For all-cause mortality risk, none of the variables (including age, gender, coronary arterial disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system inhibitors, trajectories of UA, and treatment of UA) were statistically significant. All 6 trajectories appeared as steady curves without crossovers among them over the entire period of follow-up. Patients with diabetes mellitus were statistically more likely to undergo dialysis. The only trend was seen in the on-treatment trajectories, which showed lower risks for dialysis compared to their nontreatment trajectories. There was no effect of UA control on survival. Initial treatment of UA is crucially important for UA control. However, the long-term effects on patients and renal survival appeared to be minor and without statistical significance.