Interpretable classifiers for prediction of disability trajectories using a nationwide longitudinal database

OBJECTIVES: To explore the heterogeneous disability trajectories and construct explainable machine learning models for effective prediction of long-term disability trajectories and understanding the mechanisms of predictions among the elderly Chinese at community level. METHODS: This study retrospectively collected data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study between 2002 and 2018. A total of 4149 subjects aged 65 + in 2002 with completed activities of daily living (ADL) information for at least three waves were included. The mixed growth model was used to identify disability trajectories, and five machine learning models were further established to predict disability trajectories using epidemiological variables. An explainable approach was deployed to understand the model’s decisions. RESULTS: Three distinct disability trajectories, including normal class (77.3%), progressive class (15.5%), and high-onset class (7.2%), were identified for three-class prediction. The latter two were further merged into abnormal class, accompanied by normal class for two-class prediction. Machine learning, especially random forest and extreme gradient boosting achieved good performance in both two tasks. ADL, age, leisure activity, cognitive function, and blood pressure were key predictors. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that machine learning showed good performance and maybe of additional value in analyzing quality indicators in predicting disability trajectories, thereby providing basis to personalize intervention measures. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03295-x.