A mathematical model for predicting cardiovascular responses at rest and during exercise in demanding environmental conditions

The present research describes the development and validation of a cardiovascular model (CVR Model) for use in conjunction with advanced thermophysiological models, where usually only a total cardiac output is estimated. The CVR Model detailed herein estimates cardio-dynamic parameters (changes in cardiac output, stroke volume, and heart rate), regional blood flow, and muscle oxygen extraction, in response to rest and physical workloads, across a range of ages and aerobic fitness levels, as well as during exposure to heat, dehydration, and altitude. The model development strategy was to first establish basic resting and exercise predictions for cardio-dynamic parameters in an “ideal” environment (cool, sea level, and hydrated person). This basic model was then advanced for increasing levels of altitude, heat strain, and dehydration, using meta-analysis and reaggregation of published data. Using the estimated altitude- and heat-induced changes in maximum oxygen extraction and maximum cardiac output, the decline in maximum oxygen consumption at high altitude and in the heat was also modeled. A validation of predicted cardiovascular strain using heart rate was conducted using a dataset of 101 heterogeneous individuals (1,371 data points) during rest and exercise in the heat and at altitude, demonstrating that the CVR Model performs well (R(2) = 0.82–0.84) in predicting cardiovascular strain, particularly at a group mean level (R(2) = 0.97). The development of the CVR Model is aimed at providing the Fiala thermal Physiology & Comfort (FPC) Model and other complex thermophysiological models with improved estimations of cardiac strain and exercise tolerance, across a range of individuals during acute exposure to environmental stressors. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The present research promotes the adaption of thermophysiological modeling to the estimation of cardiovascular strain in individuals exercising under acute environmental stress. Integration with advanced models of human thermoregulation opens doors for detailed numerical analysis of athletes’ performance and physiology during exercise, occupational safety, and individual work tolerability. The research provides a simple-to-validate metric of cardiovascular function (heart rate), as well as a method to evaluate key principles influencing exercise- and thermoregulation in humans.