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Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, second-line anti-retroviral therapy (ART) for HIV/AIDS patients was started some years ago; however, few studies have reported the unfavorable outcomes of second-line ART. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of unfavorable outcomes and their as...

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Autores principales: Zakaria, Hamdi Fekredin, Ayele, Tadesse Awoke, Kebede, Sewnet Adem, Jaldo, Mesfin Menza, Lajore, Bereket Abrham
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Dove 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9342510/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35923902
http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/HIV.S368373
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author Zakaria, Hamdi Fekredin
Ayele, Tadesse Awoke
Kebede, Sewnet Adem
Jaldo, Mesfin Menza
Lajore, Bereket Abrham
author_facet Zakaria, Hamdi Fekredin
Ayele, Tadesse Awoke
Kebede, Sewnet Adem
Jaldo, Mesfin Menza
Lajore, Bereket Abrham
author_sort Zakaria, Hamdi Fekredin
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, second-line anti-retroviral therapy (ART) for HIV/AIDS patients was started some years ago; however, few studies have reported the unfavorable outcomes of second-line ART. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of unfavorable outcomes and their association with change in viral load among adult HIV/AIDS patients on second-line treatment at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 421 HIV/AIDS patients on second-line ART from 2016 to 2021. Cox proportional hazard models with a linear mixed effect model were jointly modeled using the JM package of R software with time-dependent lagged parameterizations, and a 95% confidence interval was used to select significant variables. RESULTS: Overall, 89 HIV/AIDS patients developed unfavorable outcomes. The incidence density was 7.48/100 person-years (95% CI: 6.08, 9.2). Secondary and tertiary educational level (AHR=0.47, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.89, and AHR=0.27, 95% CI: 0.1, 0.72), CD4 count less than 100 cells/mm(3) (AHR=2.15, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.83), poor adherence (AHR=3.59, 95% CI: 1.73, 7.49), and TB comorbidity (AHR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.21, 4.14) at the start of second-line ART were significant predictors of incidence of unfavorable outcome. Time-dependent lagged value viral load was significantly associated with the risk of unfavorable outcome (AHR=1.28, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.63). CONCLUSION: In the study area, the incidence of an unfavorable outcome of second-line ART was high. Secondary and tertiary educational level, CD4 count less than 100 cells/mm(3), poor adherence, and TB comorbidity at the start of second-line ART were significant predictors of incidence of unfavorable outcomes. Thus, strengthening routine viral load measurement, increase patient adherence, intensive counseling, and strong TB screening are needed in the study setting.
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spelling pubmed-93425102022-08-02 Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Zakaria, Hamdi Fekredin Ayele, Tadesse Awoke Kebede, Sewnet Adem Jaldo, Mesfin Menza Lajore, Bereket Abrham HIV AIDS (Auckl) Original Research BACKGROUND: In Ethiopia, second-line anti-retroviral therapy (ART) for HIV/AIDS patients was started some years ago; however, few studies have reported the unfavorable outcomes of second-line ART. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of unfavorable outcomes and their association with change in viral load among adult HIV/AIDS patients on second-line treatment at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. METHODS: A retrospective follow-up study was conducted at selected public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on 421 HIV/AIDS patients on second-line ART from 2016 to 2021. Cox proportional hazard models with a linear mixed effect model were jointly modeled using the JM package of R software with time-dependent lagged parameterizations, and a 95% confidence interval was used to select significant variables. RESULTS: Overall, 89 HIV/AIDS patients developed unfavorable outcomes. The incidence density was 7.48/100 person-years (95% CI: 6.08, 9.2). Secondary and tertiary educational level (AHR=0.47, 95% CI: 0.25, 0.89, and AHR=0.27, 95% CI: 0.1, 0.72), CD4 count less than 100 cells/mm(3) (AHR=2.15, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.83), poor adherence (AHR=3.59, 95% CI: 1.73, 7.49), and TB comorbidity (AHR=2.23, 95% CI: 1.21, 4.14) at the start of second-line ART were significant predictors of incidence of unfavorable outcome. Time-dependent lagged value viral load was significantly associated with the risk of unfavorable outcome (AHR=1.28, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.63). CONCLUSION: In the study area, the incidence of an unfavorable outcome of second-line ART was high. Secondary and tertiary educational level, CD4 count less than 100 cells/mm(3), poor adherence, and TB comorbidity at the start of second-line ART were significant predictors of incidence of unfavorable outcomes. Thus, strengthening routine viral load measurement, increase patient adherence, intensive counseling, and strong TB screening are needed in the study setting. Dove 2022-07-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9342510/ /pubmed/35923902 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/HIV.S368373 Text en © 2022 Zakaria et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited. The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/) ). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed. For permission for commercial use of this work, please see paragraphs 4.2 and 5 of our Terms (https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php).
spellingShingle Original Research
Zakaria, Hamdi Fekredin
Ayele, Tadesse Awoke
Kebede, Sewnet Adem
Jaldo, Mesfin Menza
Lajore, Bereket Abrham
Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
title Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
title_full Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
title_fullStr Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
title_short Joint Modeling of Incidence of Unfavorable Outcomes and Change in Viral Load Over Time Among Adult HIV/AIDS Patients on Second-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy, in Selected Public Hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
title_sort joint modeling of incidence of unfavorable outcomes and change in viral load over time among adult hiv/aids patients on second-line anti-retroviral therapy, in selected public hospitals of addis ababa, ethiopia
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9342510/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35923902
http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/HIV.S368373
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