Clay and climatic variability explain the global potential distribution of Juniperus phoenicea toward restoration planning

Juniperus phoenicea is a medicinal conifer tree species distributed mainly in the Mediterranean region, and it is IUCN Red Listed species, locally threatened due to arid conditions and seed over-collection for medicinal purposes, particularly in the East-Mediterranean region. Several studies have addressed the potential distribution of J. phoenicea using bioclimatic and topographic variables at a local or global scale, but little is known about the role of soil and human influences as potential drivers. Therefore, our objectives were to determine the most influential predictor factors and their relative importance that might be limiting the regeneration of J. phoenicea, in addition, identifying the most suitable areas which could be assumed as priority conservation areas. We used ensemble models for species distribution modelling. Our findings revealed that aridity, temperature seasonality, and clay content are the most important factors limiting the potential distribution of J. phoenicea. Potentially suitable areas of the output maps, in which J. phoenicea populations degraded, could be assumed as decision-support tool reforestation planning. Other suitable areas, where there was no previous tree cover are a promising tool for afforestation and conservation planning. Finally, conservation actions are needed for natural habitats, particularly in the arid and semi-arid regions, which are highly threatened by global warming.