Patient Age and Surgical Intervention as Risk Factors for the Development of Osteoarthritis After Posterior Shoulder Instability: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis and treatment of posterior shoulder instability (PSI) has improved with advances in imaging and surgical technique. However, the relationship between PSI and osteoarthritis (OA) remains unclear. PURPOSE: To evaluate a population-based cohort to (1) determine the rate of symptomatic OA, (2) identify patient characteristic risk factors for OA, and (3) evaluate the effect of posterior capsulolabral repair on OA progression. STUDY DESIGN: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. METHODS: After review of 324 patient records, we included 115 patients (14 female, 101 male) diagnosed with PSI between January 1994 and July 2012 with an average follow-up of 12.5 years (range, 5-23 years). Medical records were reviewed for patient characteristics, injury characteristics, surgical details (if any), and radiographic progression of OA. Kaplan-Meier survival was used to estimate survival free of OA; characteristics associated with OA progression were determined via univariate Cox regression models, and associated 95% CIs and hazard ratios (HRs) are presented. RESULTS: Overall, 14% (16/115) of patients had radiographic progression of symptomatic glenohumeral arthritis, with 5-year survival of 88.3% (95% CI, 79.7%-97.3%). Older age at the time of instability diagnosis was associated with arthritis progression (10-year unit HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.26-3.03). Patients who underwent surgery demonstrated increased radiographic progression of OA (HR, 4.03; 95% CI, 1.23-13.23). There was a trend of increased OA in patients treated with labral debridement compared with repair despite lower baseline levels of OA; however, this difference was not statistically significant (P = .09). CONCLUSION: Symptomatic glenohumeral arthritis is not seen routinely in patients with PSI. Although uncommon, an age of at least 30 years at the time of diagnosis and surgical intervention were identified as risk factors for developing symptomatic arthritis at long-term follow-up.