(Dis)agreement of polymyalgia rheumatica relapse criteria, and prediction of relapse in a retrospective cohort

BACKGROUND: To develop and assess a prediction model for polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) relapse within the first year of glucocorticoid (GC) treatment. METHODS: A retrospective PMR cohort (clinical diagnosis) from a rheumatology department was used. All visits > 30 days after starting GC treatment and with > 2.5 mg/day oral prednisolone were used as potential relapse visits. Often used relapse criteria (1) rheumatologist judgement, (2) treatment intensification-based relapse) were assessed for agreement in this cohort. The proportion of patients with treatment-based relapse within 1 and 2 years of treatment and the relapse incidence rate were used to assess unadjusted associations with candidate predictors using logistic and Poisson regression respectively. After using a multiple imputation method, a multivariable model was developed and assessed to predict the occurrence (yes/no) of relapse within the first year of treatment. RESULTS: Data from 417 patients was used. Relapse occurred at 399 and 321 (of 2422) visits based on the rheumatologist judgement- and treatment-based criteria respectively, with low to moderate agreement between the two (87% (95% CI 0.86–0.88), with κ = 0.49 (95% CI 0.44–0.54)). Treatment-based relapse within the first two years was significantly associated with CRP, ESR, and pre-treatment symptom duration, and incidence rate with only CRP and ESR. A model to predict treatment intensification within the first year of treatment was developed using sex, medical history of cardiovascular disease and malignancies, pre-treatment symptom duration, ESR, and Hb, with an AUC of 0.60–0.65. CONCLUSION: PMR relapse occurs frequently, although commonly used criteria only show moderate agreement, underlining the importance of a uniform definition and criteria of a PMR specific relapse. A model to predict treatment intensification was developed using practical predictors, although its performance was modest. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41927-022-00274-y.