Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures

Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used a...

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Autores principales: Codi, Allison, Luk, Damon, Braun, David, Cambeiro, Juan, Besiroglu, Tamay, Chen, Eva, de Cesaris, Luis Enrique Urtubey, Bocchini, Paolo, McAndrew, Thomas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2022
Materias:
Brief Report
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348614/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35937647
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofac354
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author Codi, Allison
Luk, Damon
Braun, David
Cambeiro, Juan
Besiroglu, Tamay
Chen, Eva
de Cesaris, Luis Enrique Urtubey
Bocchini, Paolo
McAndrew, Thomas
author_facet Codi, Allison
Luk, Damon
Braun, David
Cambeiro, Juan
Besiroglu, Tamay
Chen, Eva
de Cesaris, Luis Enrique Urtubey
Bocchini, Paolo
McAndrew, Thomas
author_sort Codi, Allison
collection PubMed
description Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks.
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spelling pubmed-93486142022-08-04 Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures Codi, Allison Luk, Damon Braun, David Cambeiro, Juan Besiroglu, Tamay Chen, Eva de Cesaris, Luis Enrique Urtubey Bocchini, Paolo McAndrew, Thomas Open Forum Infect Dis Brief Report Aggregated human judgment forecasts for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows that aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as a tool to aid public health decision making during outbreaks. Oxford University Press 2022-07-25 /pmc/articles/PMC9348614/ /pubmed/35937647 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofac354 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
spellingShingle Brief Report
Codi, Allison
Luk, Damon
Braun, David
Cambeiro, Juan
Besiroglu, Tamay
Chen, Eva
de Cesaris, Luis Enrique Urtubey
Bocchini, Paolo
McAndrew, Thomas
Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
title Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
title_full Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
title_fullStr Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
title_full_unstemmed Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
title_short Aggregating Human Judgment Probabilistic Predictions of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission, Burden, and Preventive Measures
title_sort aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of coronavirus disease 2019 transmission, burden, and preventive measures
topic Brief Report
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9348614/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35937647
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofac354
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