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Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magn...

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Autores principales: Tadesse, Michael Getachew, Wahl, Thomas, Rashid, Md Mamunur, Dangendorf, Sönke, Rodríguez-Enríquez, Alejandra, Talke, Stefan Andreas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9349196/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35922639
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x
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author Tadesse, Michael Getachew
Wahl, Thomas
Rashid, Md Mamunur
Dangendorf, Sönke
Rodríguez-Enríquez, Alejandra
Talke, Stefan Andreas
author_facet Tadesse, Michael Getachew
Wahl, Thomas
Rashid, Md Mamunur
Dangendorf, Sönke
Rodríguez-Enríquez, Alejandra
Talke, Stefan Andreas
author_sort Tadesse, Michael Getachew
collection PubMed
description We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.
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spelling pubmed-93491962022-08-05 Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions Tadesse, Michael Getachew Wahl, Thomas Rashid, Md Mamunur Dangendorf, Sönke Rodríguez-Enríquez, Alejandra Talke, Stefan Andreas Sci Rep Article We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-08-03 /pmc/articles/PMC9349196/ /pubmed/35922639 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Tadesse, Michael Getachew
Wahl, Thomas
Rashid, Md Mamunur
Dangendorf, Sönke
Rodríguez-Enríquez, Alejandra
Talke, Stefan Andreas
Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions
title Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions
title_full Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions
title_fullStr Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions
title_full_unstemmed Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions
title_short Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions
title_sort long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9349196/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35922639
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x
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