Heterogeneity in mental health change during the COVID‐19 pandemic in Germany: The role of social factors

The COVID‐19 pandemic constitutes a prolonged global crisis, but its effects on mental health seem inconsistent. This inconsistency highlights the importance of considering the differential impact of the pandemic on individuals. There is some evidence that mental health trajectories are heterogeneous and that both sociodemographic and personal characteristics are associated with higher risk for mental health issues. By contrast, information on the role of social factors as potential determinants of initial reactions to the pandemic and on heterogeneous trajectories over time is lacking. We analysed seven assessments of a large‐scale (N = 2203) longitudinal study across 1.5 years, beginning in March 2020. Using self‐report data on mental health and life satisfaction, we applied latent change models to examine initial reactions and mean changes across the pandemic. In addition, we applied latent class growth analyses to investigate whether there were distinct groups with different patterns of change. Results showed that on average, levels of life satisfaction and anxiety decreased (d = −0.31 and d = −0.11, respectively), levels of depressive symptoms increased (d = 0.13), and stress levels remained unchanged (d = −0.01) during the first year of the pandemic. For each outcome, we identified four distinct mental health trajectories. Between 5% (for anxiety) and 11% (for life satisfaction) of the sample reported consistently high—and even increasing—impairments in mental health and well‐being. The trajectories of a sizeable number of people covaried with the course of the pandemic, such that people experienced better mental health when the number of COVID cases was low and when fewer restrictions were placed on public life. Low emotional support, high instrumental support, and the tendency to compare oneself with others were associated with more mental health issues. Findings show that whereas a substantial portion of people were largely unaffected by the pandemic, some individuals experienced consistently high levels of psychological distress. Social factors appear to play a crucial role in the maintenance of well‐being.