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Convergence behaviours of energy series and GDP nexus hypothesis: A non-parametric Bayesian application

With the EU Green Deal initiatives, European members seek to launch the first climate neutral continent by 2050. This paper assesses the stochastic convergence of per capita energy consumption series for an illustrative sample of 15 EU countries with memberships prior to the 2004 enlargement, using...

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Autores principales: Simionescu, Mihaela, Strielkowski, Wadim, Schneider, Nicolas, Smutka, Luboš
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9352043/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35925933
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271345
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author Simionescu, Mihaela
Strielkowski, Wadim
Schneider, Nicolas
Smutka, Luboš
author_facet Simionescu, Mihaela
Strielkowski, Wadim
Schneider, Nicolas
Smutka, Luboš
author_sort Simionescu, Mihaela
collection PubMed
description With the EU Green Deal initiatives, European members seek to launch the first climate neutral continent by 2050. This paper assesses the stochastic convergence of per capita energy consumption series for an illustrative sample of 15 EU countries with memberships prior to the 2004 enlargement, using data spanning the 1970–2018 period. Results from the confidence interval subsampling (asymmetric and equal-tailed) highlight that 11 out of the 15 EU series exhibit a long-run memory behaviour, while a diverging pattern was observed for the UK, Germany, Portugal, and Italy. Finally, per capita energy use series persist but fail to reveal one of the above dynamics for Ireland and Spain. Also, findings from the non-parametric Bayesian application (ANOVA/linear Dependent Dirichlet Process (DDP) mixture model) show how economic growth operates as a converging energy consumption-enabler over the long-run, from which the EU membership cannot be excluded. In particular, we highlight how the nature of energy-GDP hypotheses vary with the stochastic properties of energy use (converging behaviour with temporary shocks, converging pattern with permanent shocks, and diverging dynamic). Finally, our conclusions overcome the well-established development stage argument as we claim that countries with similar energy convergence patterns may need to adopt similar energy policies.
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spelling pubmed-93520432022-08-05 Convergence behaviours of energy series and GDP nexus hypothesis: A non-parametric Bayesian application Simionescu, Mihaela Strielkowski, Wadim Schneider, Nicolas Smutka, Luboš PLoS One Research Article With the EU Green Deal initiatives, European members seek to launch the first climate neutral continent by 2050. This paper assesses the stochastic convergence of per capita energy consumption series for an illustrative sample of 15 EU countries with memberships prior to the 2004 enlargement, using data spanning the 1970–2018 period. Results from the confidence interval subsampling (asymmetric and equal-tailed) highlight that 11 out of the 15 EU series exhibit a long-run memory behaviour, while a diverging pattern was observed for the UK, Germany, Portugal, and Italy. Finally, per capita energy use series persist but fail to reveal one of the above dynamics for Ireland and Spain. Also, findings from the non-parametric Bayesian application (ANOVA/linear Dependent Dirichlet Process (DDP) mixture model) show how economic growth operates as a converging energy consumption-enabler over the long-run, from which the EU membership cannot be excluded. In particular, we highlight how the nature of energy-GDP hypotheses vary with the stochastic properties of energy use (converging behaviour with temporary shocks, converging pattern with permanent shocks, and diverging dynamic). Finally, our conclusions overcome the well-established development stage argument as we claim that countries with similar energy convergence patterns may need to adopt similar energy policies. Public Library of Science 2022-08-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9352043/ /pubmed/35925933 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271345 Text en © 2022 Simionescu et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Simionescu, Mihaela
Strielkowski, Wadim
Schneider, Nicolas
Smutka, Luboš
Convergence behaviours of energy series and GDP nexus hypothesis: A non-parametric Bayesian application
title Convergence behaviours of energy series and GDP nexus hypothesis: A non-parametric Bayesian application
title_full Convergence behaviours of energy series and GDP nexus hypothesis: A non-parametric Bayesian application
title_fullStr Convergence behaviours of energy series and GDP nexus hypothesis: A non-parametric Bayesian application
title_full_unstemmed Convergence behaviours of energy series and GDP nexus hypothesis: A non-parametric Bayesian application
title_short Convergence behaviours of energy series and GDP nexus hypothesis: A non-parametric Bayesian application
title_sort convergence behaviours of energy series and gdp nexus hypothesis: a non-parametric bayesian application
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9352043/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35925933
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0271345
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