Analysis of co-occurring and mutually exclusive amino acid changes and detection of convergent and divergent evolution events in SARS-CoV-2

The inflation of SARS-CoV-2 lineages with a high number of accumulated mutations (such as the recent case of Omicron) has risen concerns about the evolutionary capacity of this virus. Here, we propose a computational study to examine non-synonymous mutations gathered within genomes of SARS-CoV-2 from the beginning of the pandemic until February 2022. We provide both qualitative and quantitative descriptions of such corpus, focusing on statistically significant co-occurring and mutually exclusive mutations within single genomes. Then, we examine in depth the distributions of mutations over defined lineages and compare those of frequently co-occurring mutation pairs. Based on this comparison, we study mutations’ convergence/divergence on the phylogenetic tree. As a result, we identify 1,818 co-occurring pairs of non-synonymous mutations showing at least one event of convergent evolution and 6,625 co-occurring pairs with at least one event of divergent evolution. Notable examples of both types are shown by means of a tree-based representation of lineages, visually capturing mutations’ behaviors. Our method confirms several well-known cases; moreover, the provided evidence suggests that our workflow can explain aspects of the future mutational evolution of SARS-CoV-2.