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Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021

This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020–December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Smallman-Raynor, M. R., Cliff, A. D.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Cambridge University Press 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9353238/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35855577
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268822001285
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author Smallman-Raynor, M. R.
Cliff, A. D.
author_facet Smallman-Raynor, M. R.
Cliff, A. D.
author_sort Smallman-Raynor, M. R.
collection PubMed
description This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020–December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population.
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spelling pubmed-93532382022-08-05 Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021 Smallman-Raynor, M. R. Cliff, A. D. Epidemiol Infect Original Paper This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020–December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population. Cambridge University Press 2022-07-20 /pmc/articles/PMC9353238/ /pubmed/35855577 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268822001285 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Smallman-Raynor, M. R.
Cliff, A. D.
Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021
title Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021
title_full Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021
title_fullStr Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021
title_full_unstemmed Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021
title_short Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020–December 2021
title_sort spatial growth rate of emerging sars-cov-2 lineages in england, september 2020–december 2021
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9353238/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35855577
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268822001285
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