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The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China
BACKGROUND: Meteorological factors can affect the emergence of scrub typhus for a period lasting days to weeks after their occurrence. Furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus is complicated because of lagged and non-linear patterns. Investigating the lagged corr...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9355273/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35937262 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.926641 |
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author | Liao, Hongxiu Hu, Jinliang Shan, Xuzheng Yang, Fan Wei, Wen Wang, Suqin Guo, Bing Lan, Yajia |
author_facet | Liao, Hongxiu Hu, Jinliang Shan, Xuzheng Yang, Fan Wei, Wen Wang, Suqin Guo, Bing Lan, Yajia |
author_sort | Liao, Hongxiu |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Meteorological factors can affect the emergence of scrub typhus for a period lasting days to weeks after their occurrence. Furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus is complicated because of lagged and non-linear patterns. Investigating the lagged correlation patterns between meteorological variables and scrub typhus may promote an understanding of this association and be beneficial for preventing disease outbreaks. METHODS: We extracted data on scrub typhus cases in rural areas of Panzhihua in Southwest China every week from 2008 to 2017 from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to study the temporal lagged correlation between weekly meteorological factors and weekly scrub typhus. RESULTS: There were obvious lagged associations between some weather factors (rainfall, relative humidity, and air temperature) and scrub typhus with the same overall effect trend, an inverse-U shape; moreover, different meteorological factors had different significant delayed contributions compared with reference values in many cases. In addition, at the same lag time, the relative risk increased with the increase of exposure level for all weather variables when presenting a positive association. CONCLUSIONS: The results found that different meteorological factors have different patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation between weather factors and scrub typhus. The lag shape and association for meteorological information is applicable for developing an early warning system for scrub typhus. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9355273 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-93552732022-08-06 The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China Liao, Hongxiu Hu, Jinliang Shan, Xuzheng Yang, Fan Wei, Wen Wang, Suqin Guo, Bing Lan, Yajia Front Public Health Public Health BACKGROUND: Meteorological factors can affect the emergence of scrub typhus for a period lasting days to weeks after their occurrence. Furthermore, the relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus is complicated because of lagged and non-linear patterns. Investigating the lagged correlation patterns between meteorological variables and scrub typhus may promote an understanding of this association and be beneficial for preventing disease outbreaks. METHODS: We extracted data on scrub typhus cases in rural areas of Panzhihua in Southwest China every week from 2008 to 2017 from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to study the temporal lagged correlation between weekly meteorological factors and weekly scrub typhus. RESULTS: There were obvious lagged associations between some weather factors (rainfall, relative humidity, and air temperature) and scrub typhus with the same overall effect trend, an inverse-U shape; moreover, different meteorological factors had different significant delayed contributions compared with reference values in many cases. In addition, at the same lag time, the relative risk increased with the increase of exposure level for all weather variables when presenting a positive association. CONCLUSIONS: The results found that different meteorological factors have different patterns and magnitudes for the lagged correlation between weather factors and scrub typhus. The lag shape and association for meteorological information is applicable for developing an early warning system for scrub typhus. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-07-22 /pmc/articles/PMC9355273/ /pubmed/35937262 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.926641 Text en Copyright © 2022 Liao, Hu, Shan, Yang, Wei, Wang, Guo and Lan. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Public Health Liao, Hongxiu Hu, Jinliang Shan, Xuzheng Yang, Fan Wei, Wen Wang, Suqin Guo, Bing Lan, Yajia The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China |
title | The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China |
title_full | The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China |
title_fullStr | The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China |
title_full_unstemmed | The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China |
title_short | The Temporal Lagged Relationship Between Meteorological Factors and Scrub Typhus With the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model in Rural Southwest China |
title_sort | temporal lagged relationship between meteorological factors and scrub typhus with the distributed lag non-linear model in rural southwest china |
topic | Public Health |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9355273/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35937262 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2022.926641 |
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