Evaluation of Sensitivity to Endocrine Therapy Index (SET2,3) for Response to Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy and Longer-Term Breast Cancer Patient Outcomes (Alliance Z1031)

PURPOSE: To evaluate prediction of response and event-free survival (EFS) following neoadjuvant endocrine therapy by SET2,3 index of nonproliferation gene expression related to estrogen and progesterone receptors adjusted for baseline prognosis. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: A correlative study was conducted of SET2,3 measured from gene expression profiles of diagnostic tumor (Agilent microarrays) in 379 women with cStage II–III breast cancer from the American College of Surgeons Oncology Group Z1031 neoadjuvant aromatase inhibitor trial SET2,3 was dichotomized using the previously published cutoff. Fisher exact test was used to assess the association between SET2,3 and low proliferation at week 2–4 [Ki67 ≤ 10% or complete cell-cycle arrest (CCCA; Ki67 ≤ 2.7%)] and PEPI-0 rate in cohort B, and the association between SET2,3 and ypStage 0/I in all patients. Cox models were used to assess EFS with respect to SET2,3 excluding cohort B patients who switched to chemotherapy. RESULTS: Patients with high SET2,3 had higher rate of pharmacodynamic response than patients with low SET2,3 (Ki67 ≤ 10% in 88.2% vs. 56.9%, P < 0.0001; CCCA in 50.0% vs. 26.2%, P = 0.0054), but rate of ypStage 0/I (24.0% vs. 20.4%, P = 0.4580) or PEPI = 0 (28.4% vs. 20.6%, P = 0.3419) was not different. Patients with high SET2,3 had longer EFS than patients with low SET2,3 (HR, 0.52, 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.80; P = 0.0026). CONCLUSIONS: This exploratory analysis of Z1031 data demonstrated a higher rate of pharmacodynamic suppression of proliferation and longer EFS in high SET2,3 disease relative to low SET2,3 disease. The ypStage 0/I rate and PEPI = 0 rate were similar with respect to SET2,3.