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A Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A SEER Population-Based Study

Background: This study aimed to develop a prognostic model based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to predict the overall survival (OS) of small cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix (SmCC). Methods: Between 1975 and 2016, a total of 401 patients were included, and th...

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Autores principales: Chen, Yusha, Chen, Jiancui, Lin, Xiaoqian, Zheng, Jinwen, Li, Suyu, Zheng, Xiangqin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: SAGE Publications 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9358550/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35929137
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/15330338221110673
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author Chen, Yusha
Chen, Jiancui
Lin, Xiaoqian
Zheng, Jinwen
Li, Suyu
Zheng, Xiangqin
author_facet Chen, Yusha
Chen, Jiancui
Lin, Xiaoqian
Zheng, Jinwen
Li, Suyu
Zheng, Xiangqin
author_sort Chen, Yusha
collection PubMed
description Background: This study aimed to develop a prognostic model based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to predict the overall survival (OS) of small cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix (SmCC). Methods: Between 1975 and 2016, a total of 401 patients were included, and their comprehensive sociodemographic and clinicopathological characteristics were collected. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to screen for independent prognostic factors. The identified factors were used to conduct a nomogram for predicting the OS of SmCC. The performance of the nomogram was determined using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) metrics. Results: The median survival time of all patients was about 24 months (95% confidence interval [95% CI] [1.50-2.17]). Age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.693 for 45-59 vs 21-34, 95% CI [1.140-2.513], P = .009; HR = 2.836 for 60-92 vs 21-34, 95% CI [1.851-4.345], P < .001), positive nodes (HR = 2.384, 95% CI [1.437-3.955], P < .001), regional nodes number ≥12 (HR = 0.500, 95% CI [0.282-0.886], P = .018), and treatment method (HR = 0.409 for surgery vs no, 95% CI [0.267-0.628], P < .001; HR = 0.649 for chemotherapy vs no, 95% CI [0.478-0.881)], P = .006) were independent factors of OS. Young patients who had surgical resection or chemotherapy, negative lymph nodes, and regional lymph nodes ≥12 had a longer survival time. These clinical factors were utilized to construct a nomogram for predicting OS. The AUC and C-index were higher than 0.7, indicating the good discriminating ability of the nomogram. The calibrations were all around the 45-degree line, indicating excellent consistency between the prediction of the model and actual observations. The DCA plots supported the clinical utility of the nomogram. Conclusion: The constructed nomogram is expected to help predict the prognosis of SmCC and guide patient treatment.
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spelling pubmed-93585502022-08-10 A Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A SEER Population-Based Study Chen, Yusha Chen, Jiancui Lin, Xiaoqian Zheng, Jinwen Li, Suyu Zheng, Xiangqin Technol Cancer Res Treat Original Article Background: This study aimed to develop a prognostic model based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to predict the overall survival (OS) of small cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix (SmCC). Methods: Between 1975 and 2016, a total of 401 patients were included, and their comprehensive sociodemographic and clinicopathological characteristics were collected. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to screen for independent prognostic factors. The identified factors were used to conduct a nomogram for predicting the OS of SmCC. The performance of the nomogram was determined using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) metrics. Results: The median survival time of all patients was about 24 months (95% confidence interval [95% CI] [1.50-2.17]). Age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.693 for 45-59 vs 21-34, 95% CI [1.140-2.513], P = .009; HR = 2.836 for 60-92 vs 21-34, 95% CI [1.851-4.345], P < .001), positive nodes (HR = 2.384, 95% CI [1.437-3.955], P < .001), regional nodes number ≥12 (HR = 0.500, 95% CI [0.282-0.886], P = .018), and treatment method (HR = 0.409 for surgery vs no, 95% CI [0.267-0.628], P < .001; HR = 0.649 for chemotherapy vs no, 95% CI [0.478-0.881)], P = .006) were independent factors of OS. Young patients who had surgical resection or chemotherapy, negative lymph nodes, and regional lymph nodes ≥12 had a longer survival time. These clinical factors were utilized to construct a nomogram for predicting OS. The AUC and C-index were higher than 0.7, indicating the good discriminating ability of the nomogram. The calibrations were all around the 45-degree line, indicating excellent consistency between the prediction of the model and actual observations. The DCA plots supported the clinical utility of the nomogram. Conclusion: The constructed nomogram is expected to help predict the prognosis of SmCC and guide patient treatment. SAGE Publications 2022-08-05 /pmc/articles/PMC9358550/ /pubmed/35929137 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/15330338221110673 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits non-commercial use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).
spellingShingle Original Article
Chen, Yusha
Chen, Jiancui
Lin, Xiaoqian
Zheng, Jinwen
Li, Suyu
Zheng, Xiangqin
A Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A SEER Population-Based Study
title A Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A SEER Population-Based Study
title_full A Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A SEER Population-Based Study
title_fullStr A Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A SEER Population-Based Study
title_full_unstemmed A Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A SEER Population-Based Study
title_short A Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Small-Cell Carcinoma of the Uterine Cervix: A SEER Population-Based Study
title_sort prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with small-cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix: a seer population-based study
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9358550/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35929137
http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/15330338221110673
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