Risk of hospitalisation or death in households with a case of COVID-19 in England: an analysis using the HOSTED data set

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether household contacts of confirmed cases of COVID-19 have an increased risk of hospitalisation or death. METHODS: We used the HOSTED data set of index cases of COVID-19 in England between June and November 2020, linked to Secondary Uses Service data on hospital episodes and Office for National Statistics’ mortality data. Multivariable logistic regression models of the odds of household contacts being hospitalised or dying within six weeks of an index case, adjusted for case type, age, sex and calendar month were calculated. Excess risk was determined by comparing the first six weeks after the index case with 6–12 weeks after the index case in a survival analysis framework. RESULTS: Index cases were more likely to be hospitalised or die than either secondary cases or non-cases, having adjusted for age and sex. There was an increased risk of hospitalisation for non-cases (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04, 1.16) and of death (aHR 1.57; 95% CI 1.14, 2.16) in the first six weeks after an index case, compared to 6–12 weeks after. CONCLUSION: Risks of hospitalisation and mortality are predictably higher in cases compared to non-cases. The short-term increase in risks for non-case contacts following diagnosis of the index case may suggest incomplete case ascertainment among contacts, although this was relatively small.