Variations and its driven factors of anthropogenic nitrogen loads in the Yangtze River Economic Belt during 2000–2019

Since the millennium, China has economically taken off with rapid urbanization, and anthropogenic nitrogen emission intensity has undergone remarkable changes. To better understand the impact of urbanization on anthropogenic nitrogen, this study calculated the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of anthropogenic nitrogen in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) since 2000, based on the estimation, using obstacle analysis to quantify the driving of industry and agriculture on N growth and using the gray model to analyze the impact of urbanization on N changes. Additionally, using the environmental pressure model to predict the future N load. The results indicated N load in the YREB increased rapidly from 21.4 Tg in 2001 to a peak of 24.5 Tg in 2012 and then decreased to 22.2 Tg in 2019. Although N flux gradually increased from the west to the east of the YREB, the growth rate had an opposite trend with a negative growth in the eastern region. Hotspots are mainly concentrated in urban agglomerations, which contributed to ~ 60% N load of the YREB, and the YREB contributed to ~ 90% N load of the Yangtze River Basin. Obstacle degree scores indicated wastewater was a major industrial driver of N growth before 2010, and then became waste gas; increased mechanization and fertilizer control effectively reduced nitrogen emissions during agricultural development. The gray analysis of urbanization indicated urban population, industry, and services had the strongest correlation with N load changes. Scenario simulations suggest N loads of the YREB remain at a high level by 2030; however, there are still opportunities to effectively control N growth through high technological innovation and reducing the proportion of industry under an enormous population. This research contributes to a better understanding of the impact of urbanization on anthropogenic nitrogen and helps developing countries to precisely control nitrogen hotspots and sources. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-21943-y.