HIV Epidemic in a Province of the Brazilian Amazon Region: Temporal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND: Although considerable progress has been made over the last decades, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality rates have remarkably increased in the Brazilian Amazon region. Here, we employed temporal analysis to determine the impact of public policies on the HIV epidemic in the state of Pará, Brazil, which has the second highest HIV incidence rate in the Amazon region. DESIGN AND METHODS: This is an ecological study conducted in the state of Pará, employing secondary data of HIV/AIDS cases notified to the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, 2007– 2018. The following epidemiological variables were collected: year of notification, municipality of residence, age, sex, education, exposure category, and HIV/AIDS diagnostic criteria. The study population was composed of 21,504 HIV/AIDS cases. The HIV/AIDS incidence rates were analyzed employing the temporal trend analysis (TTA) followed by the chi-square test and residue analysis to determine the association between the epidemiological variables and time series periods. RESULTS: A total of 50% of the notifications were composed of AIDS cases. TTA identified two periods in HIV/AIDS incidence, with stabilization of cases in the first period (G1, 2007–2012) and an upward trend in the second period (G2, 2012–2018). The most prevalent epidemiological characteristics in G2 (versus G1) were as follows: young people, brown skin color, higher schooling, and homosexuals. CONCLUSIONS: Public policy to control HIV infection in the Brazilian Amazon region has been partially effective. HIV screening tests and treatment should be made widely available to eradicate HIV infection in the Amazon region by 2030.