Trends in nephrology referral patterns for patients with chronic kidney disease: Retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: Information on early, guideline discordant referrals in nephrology is limited. Our objective was to investigate trends in referral patterns to nephrology for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of adults with ≥1 visits to a nephrologist from primary care with ≥1 serum creatinine and/or urine protein measurement <180 days before index nephrology visit, from 2006 and 2019 in Alberta, Canada. Guideline discordant referrals were those that did not meet ≥1 of: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ˂ 30 mL/min/1.73m(2), persistent albuminuria (ACR ≥ 300 mg/g, PCR ≥ 500 mg/g, or Udip ≥ 2+), or progressive and persistent decline in eGFR until index nephrology visit (≥ 5 mL/min/1.73m(2)). RESULTS: Of 69,372 patients with CKD, 28,518 (41%) were referred in a guideline concordant manner. The overall rate of first outpatient visits to nephrology increased from 2006 to 2019, although guideline discordant referrals showed a greater increase (trend 21.9 per million population/year, 95% confidence interval 4.3, 39.4) versus guideline concordant referrals (trend 12.4 per million population/year, 95% confidence interval 5.7, 19.0). The guideline concordant cohort were more likely to be on renin-angiotensin system blockers or beta blockers (hazard ratio 1.14, 95% confidence interval 1.12, 1.16), and had a higher risk of CKD progression (hazard ratio 1.09, 95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.13), kidney failure (hazard ratio 7.65, 95% confidence interval 6.83, 8.56), cardiovascular event (hazard ratio 1.40, 95% confidence interval 1.35,1.45) and mortality (hazard ratio 1.58, 95% confidence interval 1.52, 1.63). CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion nephrology referrals from primary care were not consistent with current guideline-recommended criteria for referral. Further work is needed to identify quality improvement initiatives aimed at enhancing referral patterns of patients with CKD.