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Bayesian Shared Frailty Models for Time to First Birth of Married Women in Ethiopia: Using EDHS 2016

INTRODUCTION: The primary effect of the fertility process is the birth of the first child. The ages at which women establish marital union and give their first birth depend on and result in varying demographic features. This research demonstrates how to examine the effect of numerous factors on marr...

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Autores principales: Fentaw, Kenaw Derebe, Fenta, Setegn Muche, Biresaw, Hailegebrael Birhan, Agegn, Setegn Bayabil, Muluneh, Mitiku Wale
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Hindawi 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9371872/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35966242
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5760662
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author Fentaw, Kenaw Derebe
Fenta, Setegn Muche
Biresaw, Hailegebrael Birhan
Agegn, Setegn Bayabil
Muluneh, Mitiku Wale
author_facet Fentaw, Kenaw Derebe
Fenta, Setegn Muche
Biresaw, Hailegebrael Birhan
Agegn, Setegn Bayabil
Muluneh, Mitiku Wale
author_sort Fentaw, Kenaw Derebe
collection PubMed
description INTRODUCTION: The primary effect of the fertility process is the birth of the first child. The ages at which women establish marital union and give their first birth depend on and result in varying demographic features. This research demonstrates how to examine the effect of numerous factors on married women's delay to first birth in Ethiopia using Bayesian parametric models with gamma shared frailty distribution. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the 2016 EDHS on factors related to the time of married women to first birth. A sample of 8810 married women from all parts of Ethiopia participated in the study. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to compare several parametric models with gamma shared frailty distributions to find the best model (BIC). Finally, when the prior data was taken into account, the chosen model was proven to be accurate (Bayesian approach). RESULTS: The median survival time for the first birth after marriage is 24 years (95% CI; 23.4, 25.3). The result shows that the place of residence, the access to media, the level of education of the mother, the education level of the husband, the use of the head of the contraceptives, and the sex of the household are statistically associated with the time to first birth of married women. The Weibull-gamma shared frailty model under the Bayesian approach was found to be the best model that fit the time to first birth data in this study. The result also showed that there is heterogeneity between regions of married women. CONCLUSION: To slow the increase in the Ethiopian population, families must be taught how to use contraception, and rural populations must be educated on the necessity of increasing the length of the first birth gap rather than encouraging early marriage. In general, attempts to reduce fertility by raising the age of the first marriage must consider the social and cultural settings in which marriage takes place. On the other hand, the campaign against early marriage should focus on the sociocultural, physiological, and psychological effects, as well as the reduction of reproduction.
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spelling pubmed-93718722022-08-12 Bayesian Shared Frailty Models for Time to First Birth of Married Women in Ethiopia: Using EDHS 2016 Fentaw, Kenaw Derebe Fenta, Setegn Muche Biresaw, Hailegebrael Birhan Agegn, Setegn Bayabil Muluneh, Mitiku Wale Comput Math Methods Med Research Article INTRODUCTION: The primary effect of the fertility process is the birth of the first child. The ages at which women establish marital union and give their first birth depend on and result in varying demographic features. This research demonstrates how to examine the effect of numerous factors on married women's delay to first birth in Ethiopia using Bayesian parametric models with gamma shared frailty distribution. METHODS: This study analyzed data from the 2016 EDHS on factors related to the time of married women to first birth. A sample of 8810 married women from all parts of Ethiopia participated in the study. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to compare several parametric models with gamma shared frailty distributions to find the best model (BIC). Finally, when the prior data was taken into account, the chosen model was proven to be accurate (Bayesian approach). RESULTS: The median survival time for the first birth after marriage is 24 years (95% CI; 23.4, 25.3). The result shows that the place of residence, the access to media, the level of education of the mother, the education level of the husband, the use of the head of the contraceptives, and the sex of the household are statistically associated with the time to first birth of married women. The Weibull-gamma shared frailty model under the Bayesian approach was found to be the best model that fit the time to first birth data in this study. The result also showed that there is heterogeneity between regions of married women. CONCLUSION: To slow the increase in the Ethiopian population, families must be taught how to use contraception, and rural populations must be educated on the necessity of increasing the length of the first birth gap rather than encouraging early marriage. In general, attempts to reduce fertility by raising the age of the first marriage must consider the social and cultural settings in which marriage takes place. On the other hand, the campaign against early marriage should focus on the sociocultural, physiological, and psychological effects, as well as the reduction of reproduction. Hindawi 2022-08-04 /pmc/articles/PMC9371872/ /pubmed/35966242 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5760662 Text en Copyright © 2022 Kenaw Derebe Fentaw et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Fentaw, Kenaw Derebe
Fenta, Setegn Muche
Biresaw, Hailegebrael Birhan
Agegn, Setegn Bayabil
Muluneh, Mitiku Wale
Bayesian Shared Frailty Models for Time to First Birth of Married Women in Ethiopia: Using EDHS 2016
title Bayesian Shared Frailty Models for Time to First Birth of Married Women in Ethiopia: Using EDHS 2016
title_full Bayesian Shared Frailty Models for Time to First Birth of Married Women in Ethiopia: Using EDHS 2016
title_fullStr Bayesian Shared Frailty Models for Time to First Birth of Married Women in Ethiopia: Using EDHS 2016
title_full_unstemmed Bayesian Shared Frailty Models for Time to First Birth of Married Women in Ethiopia: Using EDHS 2016
title_short Bayesian Shared Frailty Models for Time to First Birth of Married Women in Ethiopia: Using EDHS 2016
title_sort bayesian shared frailty models for time to first birth of married women in ethiopia: using edhs 2016
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9371872/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35966242
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/5760662
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