Prognostic significance of AKR1C4 and the advantage of combining EBV DNA to stratify patients at high risk of locoregional recurrence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Distinguishing patients at a greater risk of recurrence is essential for treating locoregional advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). This study aimed to explore the potential of aldo–keto reductase 1C4 (AKR1C4) in stratifying patients at high risk of locoregional relapse. METHODS: A total of 179 patients with locoregionally advanced NPC were grouped by different strategies; they were: (a) divided into two groups according to AKR1C4 expression level, and (b) classified into three clusters by integrating AKR1C4 and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA. The Kaplan–Meier method was used to calculate locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS), overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine potential prognostic factors, and a nomogram was generated to predict 3-year and 5-year LRFS. RESULTS: A significant difference in the 5-year LRFS was observed between the high and low AKR1C4 expression groups (83.3% vs. 92.7%, respectively; p = 0.009). After integrating AKR1C4 expression and EBV DNA, the LRFS (84.7%, 84.5%, 96.9%, p = 0.014) of high-, intermediate-, and low- AKR1C4 and EBV DNA was also significant. Multivariate analysis indicated that AKR1C4 expression (p = 0.006) was an independent prognostic factor for LRFS. The prognostic factors incorporated into the nomogram were AKR1C4 expression, T stage, and EBV DNA, and the concordance index of the nomogram for locoregional relapse was 0.718. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, high AKR1C4 expression was associated with a high possibility of relapse in NPC patients, and integrating EBV DNA and AKR1C4 can stratify high-risk patients with locoregional recurrence. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-09924-3.