Associations of multiple chronic disease and depressive symptoms with incident stroke among Chinese middle-aged and elderly adults: a nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: With the population aging, multiple chronic diseases, depressive symptoms, and stroke are increasingly common among middle-aged and elderly adults worldwide. This study aimed to explore the independent associations of multiple chronic diseases and depressive symptoms as well as their combination with incident stroke in a prospective cohort of Chinese middle-aged and elderly adults, and to sensitively estimate the association between each type of chronic disease and incident stroke. METHODS: This study used data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). A total of 8389 participants meeting the inclusion criteria at baseline (between 2011 and 2012) survey were included, and 7108 eligible participants completed the follow-up survey over 8 years (Wave 4, in 2018). Questionnaire information, physical examination, and clinical and biochemical measurements were collected. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age at baseline was 58.5 (± 9.1) years. Multiple chronic disease and depressive symptoms were independently associated with incident stroke. After adjusting for control variables, patients having 1 type of chronic disease and depressive symptoms were at 1.943 (95% CI = 1.166–3.238) times higher risk of incident stroke than those without chronic disease and depressive symptoms, and patients having at least 2 types of chronic diseases and depressive symptoms were at 3.000 (95% CI = 1.846–4.877) times higher risk of incident stroke; the magnitudes of the associations increased by the numbers of having chronic diseases and depressive symptoms. Sensitivity analyses incorporating all five types of chronic disease (i.e., hypertension, dyslipidemia, heart disease, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease) showed that the magnitude of the associations between hypertension and incident stroke was most significant. CONCLUSIONS: We identified significant independent and combined longitudinal associations of multiple chronic diseases and depressive symptoms with incident stroke, and the combined associations reflected a dose–response relationship. The association between hypertension and incident stroke was strongest among the five chronic diseases. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-022-03329-4.