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Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions

The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Panovska-Griffiths, J., Swallow, B., Hinch, R., Cohen, J., Rosenfeld, K., Stuart, R. M., Ferretti, L., Di Lauro, F., Wymant, C., Izzo, A., Waites, W., Viner, R., Bonell, C., Fraser, C., Klein, D., Kerr, C. C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9376711/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35965458
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0315
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author Panovska-Griffiths, J.
Swallow, B.
Hinch, R.
Cohen, J.
Rosenfeld, K.
Stuart, R. M.
Ferretti, L.
Di Lauro, F.
Wymant, C.
Izzo, A.
Waites, W.
Viner, R.
Bonell, C.
Fraser, C.
Klein, D.
Kerr, C. C.
author_facet Panovska-Griffiths, J.
Swallow, B.
Hinch, R.
Cohen, J.
Rosenfeld, K.
Stuart, R. M.
Ferretti, L.
Di Lauro, F.
Wymant, C.
Izzo, A.
Waites, W.
Viner, R.
Bonell, C.
Fraser, C.
Klein, D.
Kerr, C. C.
author_sort Panovska-Griffiths, J.
collection PubMed
description The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50–80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65–90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’.
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spelling pubmed-93767112022-08-22 Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions Panovska-Griffiths, J. Swallow, B. Hinch, R. Cohen, J. Rosenfeld, K. Stuart, R. M. Ferretti, L. Di Lauro, F. Wymant, C. Izzo, A. Waites, W. Viner, R. Bonell, C. Fraser, C. Klein, D. Kerr, C. C. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci Articles The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and the agent-based model Covasim, in June 2021, to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50–80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65–90% more transmissible than Alpha. Using these estimates in Covasim (calibrated 1 September 2020 to 20 June 2021), in June 2021, we found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these’. The Royal Society 2022-10-03 2022-08-15 /pmc/articles/PMC9376711/ /pubmed/35965458 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0315 Text en © 2022 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Articles
Panovska-Griffiths, J.
Swallow, B.
Hinch, R.
Cohen, J.
Rosenfeld, K.
Stuart, R. M.
Ferretti, L.
Di Lauro, F.
Wymant, C.
Izzo, A.
Waites, W.
Viner, R.
Bonell, C.
Fraser, C.
Klein, D.
Kerr, C. C.
Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
title Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
title_full Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
title_fullStr Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
title_full_unstemmed Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
title_short Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
title_sort statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different sars-cov-2 variants in england and impact of different interventions
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9376711/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35965458
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0315
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