The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos

This paper presents and investigates a new fractional discrete COVID-19 model which involves three variables: the new daily cases, additional severe cases and deaths. Here, we analyze the stability of the equilibrium point at different values of the fractional order. Using maximum Lyapunov exponents...

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Autores principales: Abbes, Abderrahmane, Ouannas, Adel, Shawagfeh, Nabil, Jahanshahi, Hadi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Netherlands 2022
Materias:
Original Paper
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9376916/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35992382
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-022-07766-z
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author Abbes, Abderrahmane
Ouannas, Adel
Shawagfeh, Nabil
Jahanshahi, Hadi
author_facet Abbes, Abderrahmane
Ouannas, Adel
Shawagfeh, Nabil
Jahanshahi, Hadi
author_sort Abbes, Abderrahmane
collection PubMed
description This paper presents and investigates a new fractional discrete COVID-19 model which involves three variables: the new daily cases, additional severe cases and deaths. Here, we analyze the stability of the equilibrium point at different values of the fractional order. Using maximum Lyapunov exponents, phase attractors, bifurcation diagrams, the 0-1 test and approximation entropy (ApEn), it is shown that the dynamic behaviors of the model change from stable to chaotic behavior by varying the fractional orders. Besides showing that the fractional discrete model fits the real data of the pandemic, the simulation findings also show that the numbers of new daily cases, additional severe cases and deaths exhibit chaotic behavior without any effective attempts to curb the epidemic.
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spelling pubmed-93769162022-08-15 The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos Abbes, Abderrahmane Ouannas, Adel Shawagfeh, Nabil Jahanshahi, Hadi Nonlinear Dyn Original Paper This paper presents and investigates a new fractional discrete COVID-19 model which involves three variables: the new daily cases, additional severe cases and deaths. Here, we analyze the stability of the equilibrium point at different values of the fractional order. Using maximum Lyapunov exponents, phase attractors, bifurcation diagrams, the 0-1 test and approximation entropy (ApEn), it is shown that the dynamic behaviors of the model change from stable to chaotic behavior by varying the fractional orders. Besides showing that the fractional discrete model fits the real data of the pandemic, the simulation findings also show that the numbers of new daily cases, additional severe cases and deaths exhibit chaotic behavior without any effective attempts to curb the epidemic. Springer Netherlands 2022-08-15 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9376916/ /pubmed/35992382 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-022-07766-z Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Abbes, Abderrahmane
Ouannas, Adel
Shawagfeh, Nabil
Jahanshahi, Hadi
The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos
title The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos
title_full The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos
title_fullStr The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos
title_full_unstemmed The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos
title_short The fractional-order discrete COVID-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos
title_sort fractional-order discrete covid-19 pandemic model: stability and chaos
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9376916/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35992382
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11071-022-07766-z
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