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Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes
Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, can have larger impacts on marine ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over the period 1982–2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or abou...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9381716/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35973999 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32120-7 |
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author | Burger, Friedrich A. Terhaar, Jens Frölicher, Thomas L. |
author_facet | Burger, Friedrich A. Terhaar, Jens Frölicher, Thomas L. |
author_sort | Burger, Friedrich A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, can have larger impacts on marine ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over the period 1982–2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or about one out of five present-day MHW months) are compound MHW-OAX event months under a present-day baseline, almost twice as many as expected for 90th percentile extreme event exceedances if MHWs and OAX events were statistically independent. Compound MHW-OAX events are most likely in the subtropics (2.7 in 100 months; 10°−40° latitude) and less likely in the equatorial Pacific and the mid-to-high latitudes (0.7 in 100 months; >40° latitude). The likelihood pattern results from opposing effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon on [H(+)]. The likelihood is higher where the positive effect on [H(+)] from increased temperatures during MHWs outweighs the negative effect on [H(+)] from co-occurring decreases in dissolved inorganic carbon. Daily model output from a large-ensemble simulation of an Earth system model is analyzed to assess changes in the MHW-OAX likelihood under climate change. The projected long-term mean warming and acidification trends have the largest effect on the number of MHW-OAX days per year, increasing it from 12 to 265 days per year at 2 °C global warming relative to a fixed pre-industrial baseline. Even when long-term trends are removed, an increase in [H(+)] variability leads to a 60% increase in the number of MHW-OAX days under 2 °C global warming. These projected increases may cause severe impacts on marine ecosystems. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9381716 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-93817162022-08-18 Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes Burger, Friedrich A. Terhaar, Jens Frölicher, Thomas L. Nat Commun Article Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, can have larger impacts on marine ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over the period 1982–2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or about one out of five present-day MHW months) are compound MHW-OAX event months under a present-day baseline, almost twice as many as expected for 90th percentile extreme event exceedances if MHWs and OAX events were statistically independent. Compound MHW-OAX events are most likely in the subtropics (2.7 in 100 months; 10°−40° latitude) and less likely in the equatorial Pacific and the mid-to-high latitudes (0.7 in 100 months; >40° latitude). The likelihood pattern results from opposing effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon on [H(+)]. The likelihood is higher where the positive effect on [H(+)] from increased temperatures during MHWs outweighs the negative effect on [H(+)] from co-occurring decreases in dissolved inorganic carbon. Daily model output from a large-ensemble simulation of an Earth system model is analyzed to assess changes in the MHW-OAX likelihood under climate change. The projected long-term mean warming and acidification trends have the largest effect on the number of MHW-OAX days per year, increasing it from 12 to 265 days per year at 2 °C global warming relative to a fixed pre-industrial baseline. Even when long-term trends are removed, an increase in [H(+)] variability leads to a 60% increase in the number of MHW-OAX days under 2 °C global warming. These projected increases may cause severe impacts on marine ecosystems. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-08-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9381716/ /pubmed/35973999 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32120-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Burger, Friedrich A. Terhaar, Jens Frölicher, Thomas L. Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes |
title | Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes |
title_full | Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes |
title_fullStr | Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes |
title_full_unstemmed | Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes |
title_short | Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes |
title_sort | compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9381716/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35973999 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32120-7 |
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