Enhanced CT-based radiomics predicts pathological complete response after neoadjuvant chemotherapy for advanced adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction: a two-center study

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop and validate CT-based models to predict pathological complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for advanced adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG). METHODS: Pre-NAC clinical and imaging data of AEG patients who underwent surgical resection after preoperative-NAC at two centers were retrospectively collected from November 2014 to September 2020. The dataset included training (n = 60) and external validation groups (n = 32). Three models, including CT-based radiomics, clinical and radiomics–clinical combined models, were established to differentiate pCR (tumor regression grade (TRG) = grade 0) and nonpCR (TRG = grade 1–3) patients. For the radiomics model, tumor-region-based radiomics features in the arterial and venous phases were extracted and selected. The naïve Bayes classifier was used to establish arterial- and venous-phase radiomics models. The selected candidate clinical factors were used to establish a clinical model, which was further incorporated into the radiomics–clinical combined model. ROC analysis, calibration and decision curves were used to assess the model performance. RESULTS: For the radiomics model, the AUC values obtained using the venous data were higher than those obtained using the arterial data (training: 0.751 vs. 0.736; validation: 0.768 vs. 0.750). Borrmann typing, tumor thickness and degree of differentiation were utilized to establish the clinical model (AUC-training: 0.753; AUC-validation: 0.848). The combination of arterial- and venous-phase radiomics and clinical factors further improved the discriminatory performance of the model (AUC-training: 0.838; AUC-validation: 0.902). The decision curve reflects the higher net benefit of the combined model. CONCLUSION: The combination of CT imaging and clinical factors pre-NAC for advanced AEG could help stratify potential responsiveness to NAC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13244-022-01273-w.