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Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia

Since 2016, the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, has undergone a significant range expansion from its native range in the Americas, to continental Africa, Asia, and in February 2020, mainland Australia. The large dispersal potential of FAW adults, wide host range of immature feeding stage...

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Autores principales: Maino, James L., Schouten, Rafael, Overton, Kathy, Day, Roger, Ekesi, Sunday, Bett, Bosibori, Barton, Madeleine, Gregg, Peter C., Umina, Paul A., Reynolds, Olivia L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9387490/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36003595
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cris.2021.100010
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author Maino, James L.
Schouten, Rafael
Overton, Kathy
Day, Roger
Ekesi, Sunday
Bett, Bosibori
Barton, Madeleine
Gregg, Peter C.
Umina, Paul A.
Reynolds, Olivia L.
author_facet Maino, James L.
Schouten, Rafael
Overton, Kathy
Day, Roger
Ekesi, Sunday
Bett, Bosibori
Barton, Madeleine
Gregg, Peter C.
Umina, Paul A.
Reynolds, Olivia L.
author_sort Maino, James L.
collection PubMed
description Since 2016, the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, has undergone a significant range expansion from its native range in the Americas, to continental Africa, Asia, and in February 2020, mainland Australia. The large dispersal potential of FAW adults, wide host range of immature feeding stages, and unique environmental conditions in its invasive range creates large uncertainties in the expected impact on Australian plant production industries. Here, using a spatial model of population growth and spread potential informed by existing biological and climatic data, we simulate seasonal population activity potential of FAW, with a focus on Australia's grain production regions. Our results show that, in Australia, the large spread potential of FAW will allow it to exploit temporarily favourable conditions for population growth across highly variable climatic conditions. It is estimated that FAW populations would be present in a wide range of grain growing regions at certain times of year, but importantly, the expected seasonal activity will vary markedly between regions and years depending on climatic conditions. The window of activity for FAW will be longer for growing regions further north, with some regions possessing conditions conducive to year-round population survival. Seasonal migrations from this permanent range into southern regions, where large areas of annual grain crops are grown annually, are predicted to commence from October, i.e. spring, with populations subsequently building up into summer. The early stage of the FAW incursion into Australia means our predictions of seasonal activity potential will need to be refined as more Australian-specific information is accumulated. This study has contributed to our early understanding of FAW movement and population dynamics in Australia. Importantly, the models established here provide a useful framework that will be available to other countries should FAW invade in the future. To increase the robustness of our model, field sampling to identify conditions under which population growth occurs, and the location of source populations for migration events is required. This will enable accurate forecasting and early warning to farmers, which should improve pest monitoring and control programs of FAW.
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spelling pubmed-93874902022-08-23 Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia Maino, James L. Schouten, Rafael Overton, Kathy Day, Roger Ekesi, Sunday Bett, Bosibori Barton, Madeleine Gregg, Peter C. Umina, Paul A. Reynolds, Olivia L. Curr Res Insect Sci Research Article Since 2016, the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, has undergone a significant range expansion from its native range in the Americas, to continental Africa, Asia, and in February 2020, mainland Australia. The large dispersal potential of FAW adults, wide host range of immature feeding stages, and unique environmental conditions in its invasive range creates large uncertainties in the expected impact on Australian plant production industries. Here, using a spatial model of population growth and spread potential informed by existing biological and climatic data, we simulate seasonal population activity potential of FAW, with a focus on Australia's grain production regions. Our results show that, in Australia, the large spread potential of FAW will allow it to exploit temporarily favourable conditions for population growth across highly variable climatic conditions. It is estimated that FAW populations would be present in a wide range of grain growing regions at certain times of year, but importantly, the expected seasonal activity will vary markedly between regions and years depending on climatic conditions. The window of activity for FAW will be longer for growing regions further north, with some regions possessing conditions conducive to year-round population survival. Seasonal migrations from this permanent range into southern regions, where large areas of annual grain crops are grown annually, are predicted to commence from October, i.e. spring, with populations subsequently building up into summer. The early stage of the FAW incursion into Australia means our predictions of seasonal activity potential will need to be refined as more Australian-specific information is accumulated. This study has contributed to our early understanding of FAW movement and population dynamics in Australia. Importantly, the models established here provide a useful framework that will be available to other countries should FAW invade in the future. To increase the robustness of our model, field sampling to identify conditions under which population growth occurs, and the location of source populations for migration events is required. This will enable accurate forecasting and early warning to farmers, which should improve pest monitoring and control programs of FAW. Elsevier 2021-01-23 /pmc/articles/PMC9387490/ /pubmed/36003595 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cris.2021.100010 Text en © 2021 The Authors https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Research Article
Maino, James L.
Schouten, Rafael
Overton, Kathy
Day, Roger
Ekesi, Sunday
Bett, Bosibori
Barton, Madeleine
Gregg, Peter C.
Umina, Paul A.
Reynolds, Olivia L.
Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia
title Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia
title_full Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia
title_fullStr Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia
title_full_unstemmed Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia
title_short Regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia
title_sort regional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in australia
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9387490/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36003595
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cris.2021.100010
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