Examining industrial air pollution embodied in trade: implications of a hypothetical China-UK FTA

Very few developed economies have a full free trade agreement (FTA) with China. This study employs one GTAP model and builds an extended environmental multi-region input–output model to investigate a hypothetical China-UK FTA, concerning embodied industrial emissions of SO(2), PM(2.5), NO(X), and NH(3). The economic sectors are also classified based on their embodied pollution intensity and trade advantage index under various FTA scenarios. Results show that the UK’s GDP and welfare and China’s welfare will increase, along with changes in their trade structures. Overall, this FTA brings about larger net impacts on embodied emissions of SO(2) than on PM(2.5), NO(X) and NH(3), and both countries are net importers of the latter three pollutants. Key sectors such as non-metallic mineral products, chemical products, and agriculture are inclined to become less competitive and less polluting under the FTA. The inclusion of agri-food sectors exhibits slight counteracting effects in general. The findings are of policy importance as they provide insights into how best to target key sectors, seeking a balance between trade development and environmental protection. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-022-02612-z.