Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the child care sector: Evidence from North Carolina

This study provides a comprehensive, census-level evaluation of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the county child care market in a large and diverse state, North Carolina, and the disproportionate impacts of the pandemic on different types of providers and communities. We use county-level panel data from 2016 to 2020 and a difference-in-differences design to isolate the effects of the pandemic from unobservable seasonal trends in enrollments and closures. We found that the COVID-19 pandemic reduced county-level child care enrollment by 40% and the number of providers by 2% as of December 2020. Heterogeneity analyses revealed that the family child care sector experienced not only less severe reductions in enrollment and closure than center providers, but also a small growth in the number of family providers. Declines in enrollment were most substantial for preschool-aged children. There was a significant drop in the number of 5-star providers and an increase in the number of lower-quality providers. Provider closures were more concentrated in communities with a higher percentage of Hispanic residents. Higher-SES communities experienced larger drops in enrollment as well as provider closures. Implications for child development and future research and policies are discussed.