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Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends
In Spain, the youth unemployment rate is one of the highest in the European Union. With the pandemic caused by Covid-19, young people face high unemployment rates and are more vulnerable to a decrease in labour demand. This paper analyses and predicts youth unemployment using Google Trends indices i...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Netherlands
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9390114/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36034543 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-02984-9 |
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author | Simionescu, Mihaela Cifuentes-Faura, Javier |
author_facet | Simionescu, Mihaela Cifuentes-Faura, Javier |
author_sort | Simionescu, Mihaela |
collection | PubMed |
description | In Spain, the youth unemployment rate is one of the highest in the European Union. With the pandemic caused by Covid-19, young people face high unemployment rates and are more vulnerable to a decrease in labour demand. This paper analyses and predicts youth unemployment using Google Trends indices in Spain for the period between the first quarter of 2004 and the second quarter of 2021, being the first work to carry out this study for Spain and the first to use the regional approach for the country. Vector autoregressive Bayesian models and vector error correction models have been used for national data, and Bayesian panel data models and fixed effects model for regional data. The results confirm that forecasts based on Google Trends data are more accurate in predicting the youth unemployment rate. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9390114 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer Netherlands |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-93901142022-08-22 Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends Simionescu, Mihaela Cifuentes-Faura, Javier Soc Indic Res Original Research In Spain, the youth unemployment rate is one of the highest in the European Union. With the pandemic caused by Covid-19, young people face high unemployment rates and are more vulnerable to a decrease in labour demand. This paper analyses and predicts youth unemployment using Google Trends indices in Spain for the period between the first quarter of 2004 and the second quarter of 2021, being the first work to carry out this study for Spain and the first to use the regional approach for the country. Vector autoregressive Bayesian models and vector error correction models have been used for national data, and Bayesian panel data models and fixed effects model for regional data. The results confirm that forecasts based on Google Trends data are more accurate in predicting the youth unemployment rate. Springer Netherlands 2022-08-19 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC9390114/ /pubmed/36034543 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-02984-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Original Research Simionescu, Mihaela Cifuentes-Faura, Javier Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends |
title | Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends |
title_full | Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends |
title_fullStr | Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends |
title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends |
title_short | Forecasting National and Regional Youth Unemployment in Spain Using Google Trends |
title_sort | forecasting national and regional youth unemployment in spain using google trends |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9390114/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36034543 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-022-02984-9 |
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