Cumulative effects of air pollution and climate drivers on COVID-19 multiwaves in Bucharest, Romania

Over more than two years of global health crisis due to ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Romania experienced a five-wave pattern. This study aims to assess the potential impact of environmental drivers on COVID-19 transmission in Bucharest, capital of Romania during the analyzed epidemic period. Through descriptive statistics and cross-correlation tests applied to time series of daily observational and geospatial data of major outdoor inhalable particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) or ≤ 10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), ozone (O(3)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), carbon monoxide (CO), Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD) and radon ((222)Rn), we investigated the COVID-19 waves patterns under different meteorological conditions. This study examined the contribution of individual climate variables on the ground level air pollutants concentrations and COVID-19 disease severity. As compared to the long-term average AOD over Bucharest from 2015 to 2019, for the same year periods, this study revealed major AOD level reduction by ~28 % during the spring lockdown of the first COVID-19 wave (15 March 2020–15 May 2020), and ~16 % during the third COVID-19 wave (1 February 2021–1 June 2021). This study found positive correlations between exposure to air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, NO(2), SO(2), CO and (222)Rn, and significant negative correlations, especially for spring-summer periods between ground O(3) levels, air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance with COVID-19 incidence and deaths. For the analyzed time period 1 January 2020–1 April 2022, before and during each COVID-19 wave were recorded stagnant synoptic anticyclonic conditions favorable for SARS-CoV-2 virus spreading, with positive Omega surface charts composite average (Pa/s) at 850 mb during fall- winter seasons, clearly evidenced for the second, the fourth and the fifth waves. These findings are relevant for viral infections controls and health safety strategies design in highly polluted urban environments.