Rural vulnerability to water scarcity in Iran: an integrative methodology for evaluating exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

The water crisis is the main stress in arid and semi-arid areas, especially in rural areas where agriculture is the main livelihood. This study assessed vulnerability to water scarcity in six rural regions of Isfahan, Iran. These areas have lost their primary water source of agriculture, the Zayandeh Rud River, since 2006. They have confronted many socio-ecological problems which threatened their existence. A mixed methodology was used to assess vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Structured questionnaires and in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants and 266 households. The method of Multidimensional Poverty Index was applied to calculate the sensitivity index, which has not been used for sensitivity assessment yet. The results showed that the leading cause of water scarcity is poor water governance. The three districts that had direct access to the Zayandeh Rud river were more vulnerable to water scarcity (scores of 0.35, 0.39, and 0.44) than those that had never had direct access to the river (scores of 0.19, 0.21, and 0.23) due to the more exposure and less adaption to water shortage. Inappropriate financial resilience (from 0.24 to 0.41) and living standards (from 0.19 to 0.36) have made more contributions to creating sensitivity than socioeconomic factors (from 0.14 to 0.28). Different natural capitals have mainly created differences in adaptive capacity across rural areas. Villages located downstream have lost their natural capital due to water-quality degradation caused by river drying up and groundwater overexploitation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10708-022-10726-0.