Trends in the Prevalence of Chronic Medication Use Among Children in Israel Between 2010 and 2019: Protocol for a Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Prescription of psychostimulants has significantly increased in most countries worldwide for both preschool and school-aged children. Understanding the trends of chronic medication use among children in different age groups and from different sociodemographic backgrounds is essential. It is essential to distinguish between selected therapy areas to help decision-makers evaluate not only the relevant expected medication costs but also the specific services related to these areas. OBJECTIVE: This study will analyze differences in trends regarding medications considered psychobehavioral treatments and medications considered nonpsychobehavioral treatments and will identify risk factors and predictors for chronic medication use among children. METHODS: This is a retrospective study. Data will be extracted from the Clalit Health Services data warehouse. For each year between 2010 and 2019, there are approximately 1,500,000 children aged 0-18 years. All medication classes will be identified using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical code. A time-trend analysis will be performed to investigate if there is a significant difference between the trends of children’s psychobehavioral and nonpsychobehavioral medication prescriptions. A logistic regression combined with machine learning models will be developed to identify variables that may increase the risk for specific chronic medication types and identify children likely to get such treatment. RESULTS: The project was funded in 2019. Data analysis is currently underway, and the results are expected to be submitted for publication in 2022. Understanding trends regarding medications considered psychobehavioral treatments and medications considered nonpsychobehavioral treatments will support the identification of risk factors and predictors for chronic medication use among children. CONCLUSIONS: Analyzing the response of the patient (and their parents or caregivers) population over time will hopefully help improve policies for prescriptions and follow-up of chronic treatments in children. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/36756