Identification of factors associated with residual malaria transmission using school-based serological surveys in settings pursuing elimination

BACKGROUND: Targeted research on residual malaria transmission is important to improve strategies in settings pursuing elimination, where transmission reductions prove challenging. This study aimed to detect and characterize spatial heterogeneity and factors associated with Plasmodium falciparum infections and exposure, P. falciparum apical membrane antigen 1 (PfAMA1) antibody (Ab) response, in the Central Highlands of Madagascar (CHL). METHODS: From May to July 2014, a cross-sectional school-based survey was carried out in 182 fokontany (villages) within 7 health districts of the CHL. Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and a bead-based immunoassay including PfAMA1 antigen biomarker were used to estimate malaria prevalence and seroprevalence, respectively. Local Moran’s I index was used to detect spatial “hotspots”. Remotely sensed environmental data—temperature, vegetation indices, land covers, and elevation—were used in multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models to characterize factors associated with malaria infection and cumulative exposure. RESULTS: Among 6,293 school-children ages 2–14 years surveyed, RDT prevalence was low at 0.8% (95% CI 0.6–1.1%), while PfAMA1 Ab seroprevalence was 7.0% (95% CI 6.4–7.7%). Hotspots of PfAMA1 Ab seroprevalence were observed in two districts (Ankazobe and Mandoto). Seroprevalence increased for children living > 5 km from a health centre (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.6, 95% CI 1.2–2.2), and for those experiencing a fever episode in the previous 2 weeks (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2–2.4), but decreased at higher elevation (for each 100-m increase, OR = 0.7, 95% CI 0.6–0.8). A clear age pattern was observed whereby children 9–10 years old had an OR of 1.8 (95% CI 1.2–2.4), children 11–12 years an OR of 3.7 (95% CI 2.8–5.0), and children 13–14 years an OR of 5.7 (95% CI 4.0–8.0) for seropositivity, compared with younger children (2–8 years). CONCLUSION: The use of serology in this study provided a better understanding of malaria hotspots and associated factors, revealing a pattern of higher transmission linked to geographical barriers in health care access. The integration of antibody-assays into existing surveillance activities could improve exposure assessment, and may help to monitor the effectiveness of malaria control efforts and adapt elimination interventions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04260-0.