Development of a Bayesian inference model for assessing ventilation condition based on CO(2) meters in primary schools

Outdoor fresh air ventilation plays a significant role in reducing airborne transmission of diseases in indoor spaces. School classrooms are considerably challenged during the COVID-19 pandemic because of the increasing need for in-person education, untimely and incompleted vaccinations, high occupancy density, and uncertain ventilation conditions. Many schools started to use CO(2) meters to indicate air quality, but how to interpret the data remains unclear. Many uncertainties are also involved, including manual readings, student numbers and schedules, uncertain CO(2) generation rates, and variable indoor and ambient conditions. This study proposed a Bayesian inference approach with sensitivity analysis to understand CO(2) readings in four primary schools by identifying uncertainties and calibrating key parameters. The outdoor ventilation rate, CO(2) generation rate, and occupancy level were identified as the top sensitive parameters for indoor CO(2) levels. The occupancy schedule becomes critical when the CO(2) data are limited, whereas a 15-min measurement interval could capture dynamic CO(2) profiles well even without the occupancy information. Hourly CO(2) recording should be avoided because it failed to capture peak values and overestimated the ventilation rates. For the four primary school rooms, the calibrated ventilation rate with a 95% confidence level for fall condition is 1.96±0.31 ACH for Room #1 (165 m(3) and 20 occupancies) with mechanical ventilation, and for the rest of the naturally ventilated rooms, it is 0.40±0.08 ACH for Room #2 (236 m(3) and 21 occupancies), 0.30±0.04 or 0.79±0.06 ACH depending on occupancy schedules for Room #3 (236 m(3) and 19 occupancies), 0.40±0.32,0.48±0.37,0.72±0.39 ACH for Room #4 (231 m(3) and 8–9 occupancies) for three consecutive days.